Western Conference: NBA’s biggest what-ifs of the past five years

Instead of the drama that befell the franchise last season, Dallas would again finish with a top-four record in the West, with Brunson’s steady play leading the Mavericks back to the second round of the playoffs and removing a lot of the pressure surrounding Luka Doncic’s long-term future with the franchise. Dorian Finney-Smith would also remain in Dallas, and there would’ve been no need to get into business with Kyrie Irving.

In the two weeks after the trade deadline during the 2020-21 season, Denver looked like an absolute juggernaut. Landing forward Aaron Gordon via trade helped the Nuggets start outscoring teams by over 18 points per 100 possessions in the 110 minutes the quartet of Murray, Gordon, Nikola Jokic and Michael Porter Jr. played together. But then Murray suffered a torn ACL, knocking him out of the next two postseasons and leaving Denver essentially sidelined as a Western Conference power.

With Murray never leaving the lineup, Denver would have reached the NBA Finals in 2021 instead of Phoenix, who lost to the Milwaukee Bucks in six games. A healthy Warriors team would’ve stopped the Nuggets in the West finals in 2022, but by then all doubts about Jokic’s ability to drive the team’s winning ways at the highest levels would’ve been dispelled. He would’ve gone on to claim a third straight MVP award this season as a result — becoming the fourth player to do so — and Denver would’ve gone on to win its first championship, setting it up as the league’s next dynastic power with four consecutive trips to the conference finals or beyond, plus a title.

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Ball landing on a veteran-laden Golden State roster is the perfect setting to mature into the kind of professional the Warriors need him to be, while his on-court flair and passing ability couldn’t be a better complement to the way Stephen Curry and the Warriors play.

The Warriors then move on from Jordan Poole last summer, rather than paying him following the team’s championship run. They would add some future draft capital while avoiding the drama from this season, as the Warriors repeat as champions for a second straight year and are now well-positioned for the future.

The trade for Westbrook in 2019 felt like a last-gasp move by the team’s then-head of basketball operations, Daryl Morey. Either it would work, and Houston would finally break through, or it wouldn’t, and massive changes would ensue.

In this scenario, however, Westbrook never happened at all. Rather than trading Chris Paul at the nadir of his value, Morey instead holds onto him, insisting he and Harden could still co-exist. And, it turns out, they could, as Paul has the same bounce-back season he had with Oklahoma City the next season. Rather than Houston needing to figure out how to play with Westbrook, and ultimately moving on from Clint Capela, the Rockets instead kept their team together.

As a result, when they arrived in the NBA’s bubble the following summer, Houston was a team that had been together for years, and the Rockets reach the NBA Finals and deliver Houston its first championship since the Hakeem Olajuwon days of the mid-1990s — changing the legacies of Harden, Paul and Morey.

When Leonard went down with a torn ACL in the second round of the 2021 playoffs against the Utah Jazz, the Clippers had no realistic path to beating Phoenix in the West finals with just Paul George. They lost in six games.

With Leonard healthy and available, however, it’s a different story, as L.A. finally gets past the second round for the first time and reaches the NBA Finals, with Leonard becoming the second player — after LeBron James — to win Finals MVP and a title with three different franchises.

The Lakers responded to their first-round loss to the Suns in 2021 by trading for a third star in Westbrook, who couldn’t have fit worse alongside LeBron James — a mistake it took the next two seasons to correct.

Instead of trading for Westbrook, the Lakers keep that 2020 title group together — meaning Kyle Kuzma and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are never traded, and Alex Caruso isn’t lost as a salary casualty while the Lakers ducked the luxury tax with Westbrook’s gigantic contract on their books. So, instead of missing the 2022 playoffs, and barely making it this past season, the Lakers were a top four seed in both seasons, and had the ability to add to their roster, as well — completely changing the conversation around the franchise and giving them multiple chances to get James a fifth championship ring.

What if the Memphis Grizzlies didn’t move up to get Ja in the draft?

The Grizzlies jumped up in the 2019 NBA draft lottery to land Ja Morant with the second overall pick, but what would’ve happened if they hadn’t. Because the Lakers had already leapt from 11th in the lottery, when it got to the Grizzlies selection, they had two possible outcomes lying in front of them:

• Move up into the top four, wherever that might be

Let’s instead imagine a world where Rudy Gobert is never traded. Minnesota goes into last season with first-round pick Walker Kessler starting at center next to Karl-Anthony Towns and is pleasantly surprised to discover he can give the Wolves essentially what they acquired Gobert to do. As Utah tears apart its roster during the offseason, the Wolves eventually send a single first-round pick to the Jazz, along with D’Angelo Russell, to acquire Mike Conley, giving Minnesota the veteran floor general it needs and the perfect mentor to burgeoning star Anthony Edwards.

While Minnesota loses in the first round again, the future is bright. The Wolves enter this offseason with all their draft assets, a trio of building blocks on rookie scale contracts — Edwards, Kessler and Jaden McDaniels — and the flexibility to pursue whatever path they want in free agency, making them one of the more intriguing young teams in the league.

What if the New Orleans Pelicans didn’t move up to get Zion in the draft?

So much of the past four years for the Pelicans has been built around wondering when Zion Williamson will play. But what if he was never on the roster at all?

Instead of jumping up to the top spot in the 2019 draft, the Pelicans instead receive the ninth pick, watching the Lakers and Grizzlies leap past them. They’ll wind up taking Jaxson Hayes — whom they wound up landing anyway as part of a separate draft night trade with Atlanta — and he largely disappoints over the past few years before departing as a free agent.

Rather than having Williamson to center the franchise around after trading Anthony Davis, the Pelicans instead are built around Brandon Ingram — the key piece they received in the Davis deal — but they aren’t good enough to make the playoffs in any of the past four seasons and remain stuck in neutral moving forward as a franchise.

Thunder general manager Sam Presti demanded a heavy price in exchange for sending George to the Clippers in July 2019, getting the rights to several first-round picks and, most importantly, rising young guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. But what if the Clippers had managed to hang onto Gilgeous-Alexander in the trade?

For Oklahoma City, the team’s rebuild would look completely different without SGA as its centerpiece. Instead of players like Josh Giddey, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren settling in as supporting pieces around one of the game’s brightest young stars, OKC — while still in good position with all of the young players and draft capital it has at its disposal — would still be looking for a centerpiece of its rebuild instead of emerging as a real threat to be a playoff factor this season.

In this scenario, however, Paul never arrives, with Phoenix instead trying to build on its impressive run in the bubble in 2020 with Ricky Rubio still manning the point, and Kelly Oubre Jr. on the wing. But, instead of leaping up to the top of the West, the Suns instead hover around the play-in tournament mix, eventually finishing ninth and losing to the Warriors in the eighth-place game to miss the playoffs.

While steps forward took place the past two years, making the playoffs and losing in the first round both times, the massive leap forward this group experienced in the Paul era never materialized. As a result, the Suns never acquire Kevin Durant, nor Bradley Beal — and Monty Williams was still let go after this season ended.

Portland had longstanding interest in the combo forward before he eventually was moved from Orlando to Denver at the 2021 trade deadline. If he had been moved to Portland instead, his seamless transition to Denver, and his perfect fit alongside Jokic and Murray, never takes place. And Portland, which lost to Denver in the first round of the 2021 playoffs — with Murray sidelined — would advance to the West semifinals.

2023 NBA offseason