Greg Wyshynski, ESPN
It’s said that goaltending is unpredictable. It’s the great equalizer, and the thing that can undermine a championship effort. One year’s rising star in the crease is the next season’s sieve.
The top 10 goaltenders on our 2024 ESPN NHL Positional Rankings are, for the most part, the names you’d expect. It’s just that some have clearly played their way up the rankings, while others are hanging on to spots based more on their reputation than their recent accomplishments.
“It’s a great list,” one NHL goaltending analyst said. “I mean, I’d shuffle a few of the rankings, but it’s everybody that you’d want on there. With one exception.”
Don’t worry, we’ll get there.
Welcome to the next set of results from the 2024 NHL Positional Rankings, a unique way to determine the best of the best. Some surveys ask players for their rankings. Others poll executives. The NHL Positional Rankings combine both opinions into one definitive ranking that blends on-ice savvy with boardroom thinking.
Here’s how it worked: Surveys were conducted over the past month. Respondents were asked to rank their current top 10 players at center, winger, defenseman and goaltender based on a predetermined list of the top 30-40 players at each position. Players ranked on each ballot were given a numerical score — No. 1 earned 10 points, No. 2 got 9 points and so on.
Ten NHL players were surveyed — four from the Eastern Conference, six from the Western Conference. They range from NHL award nominees to veteran role players. To balance that perspective, we surveyed 10 people from the hockey operations departments of NHL teams — six from the East, four from the West — including two coaches and three general managers.
Combined, their insights led to rankings that go behind fan conjecture and media narratives to reveal the best of the best according to those inside the NHL.
Stats are collected from sites such as Natural Stat Trick, Hockey Reference and Evolving Hockey.
165 points | Age: 30 | Last season: 3rd
To whom do we credit for a great defensive team? The Jets have been one this season, ranking first in the NHL with a 2.32 goals-against average through 50 games. Does the credit go to coach Rick Bowness for the buy-in? Does it go to the players for the execution, as the Jets have been analytics darlings all season? Or does the lion’s share go to their goaltender?
Based on this year’s NHL Positional Rankings, Hellebuyck is certainly getting his share of the credit. He appeared on every ballot, placed first on eight of them and second on five of them.
Traditional stats tell us he has been great, with a .925 save percentage and a 2.19 goals-against average to lead the NHL, along with a 24-10-3 record. The fancy stats tell us he has been great, too, with 25 goals saved above expected this season.
He’s a known quantity, as a Vezina Trophy winner who has been a finalist three times. And he tops the ranking for 2024 — even if some observers still have reservations.
“When, exactly, is the playoff success coming for Connor Hellebuyck?” one NHL goaltending analyst asked. “When the Four Nations tournament comes next season, does he start over Thatcher Demko? That’s why I want to see the playoffs this season. I want to see that proof.”
144 points | Age: 29 | Last season: 1st
The Lightning goaltender has topped this ranking twice, in 2021 and 2023, but he tumbles to No. 2 this season. The reasons are pretty simple: Hellebuyck’s dominance combined with Vasilevskiy only recently starting to play like Vasilevskiy again.
“Keep in mind, this guy is coming off hip surgery. It takes a while,” one Eastern Conference general manager noted.
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The Lightning netminder has a .903 save percentage through 29 games. Before the season, he underwent a microdiscectomy to address a lumbar disc issue. He returned to play and wasn’t himself: He had a .896 save percentage through his first 20 games, which was uncharacteristic. But he has been stronger since then, powering the Lightning up the standings.
“I think we’re starting to see Vasy finally push back after a start that was maddening,” one NHL goaltending analyst said.
“I don’t have Vasy in my current top 10. He’s played barely above expected,” another goaltending analyst noted.
But he remains Andrei Vasilevskiy, a Vezina winner and the best playoff goalie of his generation.
As one veteran NHL player put it: “If you have one game to win, you’re going to try and win it with Andrei Vasilevskiy as your goalie.”
Vasilevskiy was first on seven ballots. Like Hellebuyck, he placed first on four player ballots. That included the first-place vote from the goalie on our panel. Game recognize game.
126 points | Age: 28 | Last season: NR
Last season, the highest Demko placed on any ballot was seventh. But as one of the driving forces behind the first-place Canucks’ incredible surge this season, Demko is squarely in the conversation for the league’s top netminder.
Demko was first on the ballot of one Western Conference veteran player and placed second on five other ballots. Interestingly, two Western Conference players and one Eastern Conference executive chose to leave Demko off their ballots entirely.
The Canucks goalie has a .919 save percentage and a 2.44 goals-against average in 39 games, with a career-best five shutouts. He’s second in the NHL to Hellebuyck in goals saved above expected, at 19.9. Vancouver long considered Demko its franchise goalie. With some good health and a stout defensive team in front of him, he’s in the Vezina Trophy conversation this season.
“Demko’s had a great season. But I don’t have him ahead of Hellebuyck,” one NHL goalie analyst concluded.
119 points | Age: 28 | Last season: 2nd
This was a surprise. Shesterkin’s struggles this season have been chronicled even more than Vasilevskiy’s slow start, because the Rangers are a more high-profile team than Tampa Bay and the Jonathan Quick counter-narrative — former star recaptures the magic as the starter falters — has been hard to ignore.
(Before you ask: Quick was in the field of options and didn’t receive a top-10 vote.)
NHL Positional Rankings for 2024
A panel of players, coaches and execs was polled to come up with the top 10 players at various positions. Who makes the cut?
• Defensemen
• Goalies
• Wingers (Feb. 20)
• Centers (Feb. 22)
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Shesterkin has started to play better after the All-Star break. His save percentage is up to .902 in 34 games this season. But his head was just above water analytically (3.2 goals saved above expected) to the point even his All-Star Game selection was side-eyed.
But ask the Rangers and they’ll tell you that Shesterkin is one of the best goalies in the world, no matter how he stumbled out of the gate.
“Everyone knew he was going to get back to how he plays. I think every player goes through slumps. It’s just more noticeable when it’s a goalie,” defenseman Jacob Trouba said recently.
Shesterkin received two first-place votes: one from an Eastern Conference executive and one from a Western Conference veteran skater. He appeared on 18 of 20 ballots.
For what he has been and what he might end up being this season, Shesterkin ranked fourth overall this season — just ahead of an old friend.
111 points | Age: 28 | Last season: 4th
The other dominant Russian goalie playing in New York drops a spot down to fifth this season.
Sokorin has been solid for an Islanders team that has struggled to stay consistent. Not for nothing, but the guy could use a bounce or two: His 10 overtime or shootout losses lead all NHL goalies. He has also been the best worker in the league, leading the NHL is saves and shots faced through 38 games.
Like Shesterkin, Sorokin doesn’t blow one away analytically: He’s 15th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes of play (0.133). But one Eastern Conference executive had him first overall on his ballot, ahead of Hellebuyck. He was also second overall on the ballots of a Western Conference GM and an Eastern Conference executive.
Sorokin was left off the ballots of a Western Conference coach and veteran player.
99 points | Age: 25 | Last season: 5th
If we had told you before the season that Jake Oettinger was ranked sixth overall among all goaltenders, you might have said it was a little low after he placed fifth last season. But it wouldn’t have been a divisive ranking.
Again, before the season.
“The guy that would drop off of my top 10 is Oettinger,” one NHL goaltending analyst said. “It’s not that he’s not a top-10 goalie in the NHL. But he hasn’t been this year.”
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For as good as the Stars have been this season, Oettinger hasn’t been able to match his usual standards. Part of that is undoubtedly due to his routine being interrupted by injuries: He underwent ankle surgery during the offseason and had a groin injury that kept him out for a month. He has a .906 save percentage and a 2.90 goals-against average in 31 games, but only 47% of his starts meet the “quality starts” standard for Hockey Reference.
He’s 26th in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes. Everyone else behind him is in the negative. Evolving Hockey’s metrics have him slightly in the negative in goals above replacement.
“I can’t explain why we’re seeing more and more guys with massive dips in their stats,” one NHL goaltending analyst said. “How can Oettinger go from top five in everything last year to the bottom third?”
The Stars goalie earned no first-place votes but two second-place votes: one from an Eastern Conference executive and one from a veteran Eastern Conference player.
Oettinger likely makes this list for much the same reason be made the All-Star Game. As his coach Peter DeBoer put it: “I think he’s getting rewarded for his body of work.”
74 points | Age: 28 | Last season: 6th
Saros is another big-name goalie who hasn’t played to his usual standards this season.
The Predators netminder has a .903 save percentage and a 2.97 goals-against average in 42 games under new head coach Andrew Brunette. His numbers are worse analytically: Saros in the negative in goals saved above expected (minus-4.5) and goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (minus-0.114). He’s at zero in goals saved above replacement on Evolving Hockey.
“Saros has bothered me to the point of pissing me off,” one NHL goaltending analyst said.
“He has been a very curious disappointment this year. Very below average,” another quipped.
In defense of Saros, the best could be yet to come. He played his best hockey of last season in March and April during a Predators playoff push in a season that saw him appear for more minutes than any other goalie — his second straight season as the NHL’s minutes leader.
Plus, like Oettinger and Shesterkin, a few months off their games doesn’t undo the goodwill they’ve amassed.
The Juice earned a second-place vote from a Western Conference general manager and an Eastern Conference veteran.
65 points | Age: 25 | Last season: NR
The Bruins have the best goalie tandem in the NHL. But once you pry Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark out of one of their patented hockey hugs, there’s a choice to be made: Which one has been the better goalie?
According to our panel, it’s Swayman, who didn’t make the cut on last year’s list. The 25-year-old Alaska native has been near the top of the league in save percentage (.922) and goals against average (2.35) during the 2023-24 season. Just over 71% of his starts are “quality starts” under the metric. At 5-on-5, Swayman has been outstanding: .941 save percentage and a 1.71 goals-against average.
He has come into his own this season, and obviously earned the respect of players and front offices. One Western Conference executive had Swayman second on their ballot, in back of only Connor Hellebuyck. Only three ballots out of 20 had Ullmark ranked ahead of Swayman.
“Their adjusted numbers are near identical,” one NHL goaltending analyst said. “I’m a little surprised here, given Ullmark won the Vezina.”
40 points | Age: 35 | Last season: NR
If we held this vote during the postseason, would Playoff Bob finish first?
Stanley Cup playoff power-ups aside, this ranking shows just how high the Panthers goalie’s stock has risen in the last year. He didn’t make the 2023 list. In fact, his highest vote placement was ninth. One year and a tremendous playoff run for the Panthers later, Bobrovsky makes our top 10 thanks in part to one Western Conference veteran placing him second overall among goalies, behind only Andrei Vasilevskiy.
But, Bobrovsky didn’t appear on half of the ballots cast.
Bob has put in the work this season, with a .913 save percentage and a 2.43 goals-against average in 38 games. His analytics are decent, with 0.272 goals saved above expected per 60 minutes and 17.8 goals saved above replacement, good for ninth overall.
The two-time Vezina winner has caught the NHL’s attention again. Given how good the Panthers look, we might get another long ride with Playoff Bob this spring.
35 points | Age: 25 | Last season: 7th
When Ullmark finished seventh on the list last year, one NHL executive cautioned that it might not mean his ascent would continue up the rankings. “When you look at goalies, it is just really tough. It is so year by year,” they said.
Ullmark was objectively the best goalie for the best team in the league last season. His 40 wins, .938 save percentage and 1.89 goals-against average all led the NHL en route to a Vezina Trophy win. That might have solidified his rep, save for two subsequent events: the Bruins’ first-round meltdown against Florida and Swayman’s rise to prominence for Boston this season.
Ullmark has been quite good in 2023-24, with a .915 save percentage and a quality starts percentage of 72%. While Swayman (fifth) is well ahead of Ullmark (11th) in goals saved above replacement, Ullmark (0.527) actually leads Swayman (0.470) in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes.
But the Vezina winner didn’t appear on half of the ballots cast.
In the end, this all boils down to a good problem for the Bruins to have.
Honorable mentions
Let’s address the Calgary-sized elephant in the room.
When we shared with some NHL goaltending experts that our panel didn’t vote Jacob Markstrom into the top 10 for 2024, you could hear jaws hit the floor.
“Oh, no way. No way! Wow,” said the analyst we mentioned at the top of the story. “He’s playing on a different planet right now. He might have the best glove in the league.”
Again, the voting was conducted within the past month. The Flames have climbed back into the wild-card race. Markstrom has now crushed it for three months straight, and his name has lit up the rumor mill.
We have no preconceptions of how this balloting goes. But this was a stunner.
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Last season, Markstrom appeared on eight ballots and finished eighth in the voting. This season, only four voters had Markstrom in their top 10 — although one Western Conference veteran player had him third on his ballot. Of the 10 players we surveyed, he was the only one to have Markstrom listed.
“His numbers are off the chart,” a goaltending analyst said. “He’s ahead of Demko, ahead of Hellebuyck, ahead of everyone.”
Maybe it’s an oversight or carryover from last season’s dud under coach Darryl Sutter. Whatever the case, the goalie who is second in the NHL is goals saved above expected (18.4) and building a Vezina case with a .916 save percentage didn’t make the top 10. But that’s why we do these rankings. They’re never exactly how you’d expect.
Markstrom (16 points) wasn’t even the top runner-up. Coming in behind Ullmark was a bit of a surprise: Connor Ingram of the Arizona Coyotes (20 points), who has been a breakout player for them, with a .912 save percentage in 34 games. One Western Conference star thought enough of Ingram to rank him fourth on his ballot.
“Ingram’s been really good for a year and a half,” one NHL goaltending analyst added.
Right behind Ingram was the Vegas Golden Knights’ Adin Hill, who went from their Stanley Cup playoff hero to one of the better goalies in the league — albeit one who was limited to 20 games because of injuries. When he has played, he has been stellar: first in the NHL in goals saved above expected per 60 minutes (1.01).
“The problem is he can’t stay healthy. They’re holding him together with duct tape,” one NHL goaltending analyst said.
Behind Hill was St. Louis Blues goalie Jordan Binnington (18). He appeared on only four ballots, but one general manager had him third overall behind Vasilevskiy and Demko.
Other goalies of note included Carter Hart, currently on leave from the Philadelphia Flyers (17); John Gibson of the Anaheim Ducks (14); Alexandar Georgiev of the Colorado Avalanche (6); and Joey Daccord of the Seattle Kraken (6). All other goalies on the ballot finished with less than six points.
Among the goalies who didn’t receive a single top 10 vote: Frederik Andersen (Carolina Hurricanes), Marc-Andre Fleury (Minnesota Wild), Stuart Skinner (Edmonton Oilers) and Cam Talbot (Los Angeles Kings).