NHL playoff watch: Predicting the Stars’ perfect postseason path

What if Colorado gets the Central’s No. 1 seed, and Winnipeg is Dallas’ first-round opponent? The scenario is almost exactly reversed, as the Stars have won all three matchups against the Jets by a cumulative score of 9-3. The final game for these two is April 11 (8 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+).

If the Stars go on a heater and win the division, they’ll take on one of the West wild cards, most likely the Nashville Predators (projected for 98.8 points), Vegas Golden Knights (97.9) or Los Angeles Kings (97.7). Among those three, the Stars’ most desirable opponent based on past results is the Kings, as Dallas has won all three matchups this season (by a cumulative score of 13-3). The Stars have split the four games against the Predators, and they’ve lost all three to the Golden Knights — although there are two caveats for the Vegas results:

• One of the losses was in overtime, another in a shootout.

• The most recent of the three games was Dec. 9, and much has changed since then.

So the ideal scenario for the first two rounds is the Stars winning the Central and taking on the Kings, followed by a second-round series against the Jets (or drawing Winnipeg in the first and L.A. in the second). The charge up the standings continues Wednesday with a game against the Arizona Coyotes (8 p.m. ET, NHL Power Play on ESPN+).

As we traverse the final stretch of the regular season, it’s time to check in on all the playoff races — along with the teams jockeying for position in the 2024 NHL draft lottery.

Note: Playoff chances are via Stathletes.

Jump ahead:
Current playoff matchups
Today’s schedule
Last night’s scores
Expanded standings
Race for No. 1 pick

Current playoff matchups

Eastern Conference

A1 Boston Bruins vs. WC2 Detroit Red Wings
A2 Florida Panthers vs. A3 Toronto Maple Leafs
M1 New York Rangers vs. WC1 Tampa Bay Lightning
M2 Carolina Hurricanes vs. M3 Philadelphia Flyers

Western Conference

C1 Winnipeg Jets vs. WC1 Nashville Predators
C2 Colorado Avalanche vs. C3 Dallas Stars
P1 Vancouver Canucks vs. WC2 Vegas Golden Knights
P2 Edmonton Oilers vs. P3 Los Angeles Kings

Wednesday’s games

Note: All times ET. All games not on TNT or NHL Network are available via NHL Power Play, which is included in an ESPN+ subscription (local blackout restrictions apply).

Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals, 7:30 p.m. (TNT)
Arizona Coyotes at Dallas Stars, 8 p.m.
Minnesota Wild at Los Angeles Kings, 10 p.m. (TNT)

Tuesday’s scoreboard

Boston Bruins 6, Ottawa Senators 2
Detroit Red Wings 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2 (OT)
New Jersey Devils 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 2
Winnipeg Jets 4, New York Rangers 2
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New York Islanders 1
Colorado Avalanche 4, St. Louis Blues 3
Nashville Predators 8, San Jose Sharks 2
Edmonton Oilers 3, Montreal Canadiens 2 (OT)
Vancouver Canucks 3, Buffalo Sabres 2
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Vegas Golden Knights 3
Minnesota Wild 4, Anaheim Ducks 0
Los Angeles Kings 6, Chicago Blackhawks 0

Expanded standings

Atlantic Division

Points: 97
Regulation wins: 32
Playoff position: A1
Games left: 12
Points pace: 114
Next game: vs. NYR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: A2
Games left: 14
Points pace: 114
Next game: vs. NSH (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 85
Regulation wins: 26
Playoff position: A3
Games left: 15
Points pace: 104
Next game: @ WSH (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 80
Regulation wins: 30
Playoff position: WC1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 97
Next game: @ SJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 98.5%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 76
Regulation wins: 24
Playoff position: WC2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 90
Next game: vs. NYI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 27.7%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 71
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 12
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ EDM (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 5.1%
Tragic number: 19

Points: 62
Regulation wins: 15
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 75
Next game: @ VAN (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 14

Points: 60
Regulation wins: 19
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 73
Next game: vs. STL (Thursday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 13

Metropolitan Division

Points: 94
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: M1
Games left: 13
Points pace: 112
Next game: @ BOS (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 92
Regulation wins: 36
Playoff position: M2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 109
Next game: vs. PHI (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 78
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: M3
Games left: 13
Points pace: 93
Next game: @ CAR (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 70.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 75
Regulation wins: 27
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 15
Points pace: 92
Next game: vs. TOR (Wednesday)
Playoff chances: 58.6%
Tragic number: 29

Points: 73
Regulation wins: 21
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 88
Next game: @ DET (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 26.4%
Tragic number: 25

Points: 70
Regulation wins: 28
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 83
Next game: vs. WPG (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 10.4%
Tragic number: 20

Points: 69
Regulation wins: 25
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 14
Points pace: 83
Next game: @ DAL Friday)
Playoff chances: 2.4%
Tragic number: 21

Points: 58
Regulation wins: 18
Playoff position: N/A
Games left: 13
Points pace: 69
Next game: @ COL (Friday)
Playoff chances: ~0%
Tragic number: 8

Central Division

Points: 93
Regulation wins: 39
Playoff position: C1
Games left: 14
Points pace: 112
Next game: @ NJ (Thursday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A

Points: 93
Regulation wins: 37
Playoff position: C2
Games left: 13
Points pace: 111
Next game: s. CBJ (Friday)
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Tragic number: N/A