Neil Paine
When the NHL playoffs start Saturday, they’ll be dropping the puck on the most wide-open race for the Stanley Cup in four decades — if not longer.
Comparing ESPN BET’s title odds with historical data from earlier seasons, the Carolina Hurricanes (at +600) are on track to be the weakest pre-playoff championship favorite since at least 1984-85 — the earliest season of SportsOddsHistory.com’s archives. So even by the standards of a sport known for its chaotic postseasons, the stage could be set for an especially unpredictable path to the Cup over the next few months.
To help sort it all out, we decided to take the top contenders (every team with better than +2000 Cup odds) and look for their most similar previous Cup winners since the playoffs expanded to best-of-seven in all rounds in 1987, based on the distribution of the Goals Above Replacement (GAR) across their roster — between offense, defense and special teams, by position and in star power versus depth.
Although no past champ is a perfect match for any of this year’s championship hopefuls, these historical doppelgängers, ranked in order by their Cup odds, can provide a blueprint for how the Cup might be won this season.
Stanley Cup odds: +600
League rankings: No. 1 in Elo / No. 1 in GAR
Most similar Cup winner: 1999 Dallas Stars
Cup calling card: Suffocating defense
Just like the Stars of the late ’90s, the Hurricanes are an exceptionally deep, talented team that has been knocking on the door of a Cup run but haven’t quite been able to get over the hump.
After falling short in the 1998 Western conference finals against the eventual two-time champion Detroit Red Wings, Dallas used lessons from that series to power a title push the following season. If Carolina is to do the same — avenging last year’s conference finals sweep by the Florida Panthers — it will rely on the same formula as those Stars did: Winning with defense and timely scoring. The Hurricanes allow the league’s fewest shots per game by a wide margin, led by a group of rearguards (Brady Skjei, Brent Burns, Jaccob Slavin, Jalen Chatfield, Dmitry Orlov and Brett Pesce) that, while not as physical as Derian Hatcher, Richard Matvichuk and Craig Ludwig, still rank as the NHL’s most valuable blueliners by GAR. And under the current rules, someone like Sebastian Aho wouldn’t have to worry about a skate in the crease if he scores a Cup-winning goal.
Stanley Cup odds: +700
League rankings: No. 7 in Elo / No. 4 in GAR
Most similar Cup winner: 2007 Anaheim Ducks
Cup calling card: Physicality and depth
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Led by an elite winger (Teemu Selänne), a top-notch defensive corps (featuring Scott Niedermayer and Chris Pronger), a veteran goalie who had seen it all (Jean-Sébastien Giguère) and a deep, physical lineup, the ’07 Ducks powered their way to the Cup with a formula that was perfect for the bone-crunching grind of the postseason. This year’s Panthers carry the same checklist of attributes, more or less, from the scoring skill of LW Matthew Tkachuk to the expertise of Sergei Bobrovsky in net and a willingness to play tough defense — Florida allows the league’s fewest goals and third-fewest shots per game — and get dirty in the trenches. (Like Anaheim in 2007, Florida leads the NHL in penalty minutes.) It’s all part of general manager Bill Zito’s multi-year plan to remake his Cats in the image of tough teams that are suited for success in the playoffs, rather than simply netting high-flying milestones during the regular season.
Stanley Cup odds: +750
League rankings: No. 3 in Elo / No. 3 in GAR
Most similar Cup winner: 2001 Colorado Avalanche
Cup calling card: Star power
We’ll get to other versions of the Avalanche shortly, but Colorado’s best-ever squad might still be the star-studded 2001 team: A roster that featured peak Joe Sakic (with a career-high 31.6 GAR), prime Peter Forsberg and Milan Hejduk, veteran Hall of Famers such as Rob Blake, Ray Bourque and Patrick Roy still producing, and up-and-coming talents such as Alex Tanguay and Chris Drury. While the Avalanche still had to survive multiple Game 7s en route to the Cup, the amount of talent on hand was staggering. Something similar can be said about this year’s Oilers, with vintage seasons from Connor McDavid (in yet another MVP-type campaign) and Leon Draisaitl, career years from D Evan Bouchard and LW Zach Hyman, and the good play of D Mattias Ekholm and C Ryan Nugent-Hopkins in the mix as well. Goalie Stuart Skinner is admittedly no Roy, but Edmonton built a strong defense in front of him, and the Oilers also rank fourth in scoring at the other end — exactly like the ’01 Avs did.
Stanley Cup odds: +750
League rankings: No. 5 in Elo / No. 6 in GAR
Most similar Cup winner: 1996 Colorado Avalanche
Cup calling card: Elite offensive skill
To the point above: When considering the Avs’ quasi-dynasty in the 1990s and 2000s, we tend to think of their absolutely stacked rosters — filled with Hall of Fame forwards, blueliners and (of course) the GOAT, Patrick Roy, in net. But the first version of that team hadn’t quite fully coalesced into what it would become, in part because Roy didn’t join until a midseason trade from the Montreal Canadiens. Ranking ninth in shots against per game and 13th in save percentage in 1996, Colorado was more reliant on a third-ranked power play and second-ranked offense led by Sakic, Forsberg, Valeri Kamensky and Claude Lemieux at forward and skilled D-man Sandis Ozolinsh. Although some circumstances are different for this year’s Avs — Colorado ranks 15th in goals against simply because netminder Alexandar Georgiev (and the defense in front of him) have been mediocre — the team will nonetheless enter the playoffs relying heavily on the league’s No. 1 offense. And appropriately enough, center Nathan MacKinnon is coming off the greatest offensive season in Colorado history, breaking Sakic’s 1996 record for points after the franchise moved to Denver.
Stanley Cup odds: +800
League rankings: No. 2 in Elo / No. 2 in GAR
Most similar Cup winner: 2000 New Jersey Devils
Cup calling card: Star D-men and deep forwards
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There’s a certain irony to the 2024 Stars’ most similar champ being a 2000 Devils team that beat Dallas on Jason Arnott’s dramatic, series-ending goal in double-overtime of Game 6 in the Cup Final. (If the Stars win that game, who knows what Mike Modano and company do in Game 7?) But the two teams share a lot of common factors beyond that. At the heart of New Jersey’s roster was the defensive duo of Scott Niedermayer and Scott Stevens, a tandem paralleled by Dallas’ top pairing of Thomas Harley and Miro Heiskanen. Those Devils could also roll out multiple forward lines anchored by scorers (Patrik Elias, Petr Sykora) and two-way players (Arnott, Scott Gomez, Bobby Holík) alike. The Stars have their own version of this, with Jason Robertson headlining a forward group that features eight players with at least 50 points. No, Jake Oettinger hasn’t played anywhere near a Martin Brodeur level in net so far this year, but his track record suggests he can be better — potentially good enough to backstop a Cup run for a team that boasts the league’s top goal differential.
Stanley Cup odds: +900
League rankings: No. 4 in Elo / No. 7 in GAR
Most similar Cup winner: 2021 Tampa Bay Lightning
Cup calling card: All-around play
In winning two consecutive Stanley Cups in 2020 and 2021, the Bolts proved how top-to-bottom roster construction over the course of multiple years can help a team reach the championship level. The current Rangers might be at the same point in their evolution. Armed with their own versions of Tampa’s headliners — Artemi Panarin is Nikita Kucherov; Adam Fox is Victor Hedman; Igor Shesterkin is Andrei Vasilevskiy (OK, so that one hasn’t rung quite as true this season) — and plenty of depth in their supporting cast, the Broadway Blueshirts rank top-7 in both goals scored and allowed with a core that has been together for each of the past four seasons. Something big might be building here for New York, even if there are still question marks around the team’s mediocre possession stats.
Stanley Cup odds: +1000
League rankings: No. 6 in Elo / No. 10 in GAR
Most similar Cup winner: 2015 Chicago Blackhawks
Cup calling card: Sturdy goaltending
In retrospect, the Blackhawks’ 2015 Cup run was a last hurrah of sorts for the team’s dynasty; aside from the 2020 qualifying round, Chicago hasn’t won a playoff series since. Almost all of the 2015 squad’s top players by GAR had won at least one previous title with the club, and that group still had enough juice on defense and (especially) in net to win, despite a regular season that saw them slip to 17th in scoring. Boston is facing a similar arc. Most of the Bruins’ top players are holdovers from their agonizingly close 2019 Finals defeat — the exceptions being goalies Jeremy Swayman and Linus Ullmark, and C Pavel Zacha — and the team has survived its predictable regression from last year’s record-setting form, thanks to a Top-5 ranking in goals against. Just like Chicago leaning on Corey Crawford between the pipes, the play of Swayman and Ullmark will determine how far the Bruins go in their bid to avenge last year’s first-round upset loss.
Stanley Cup odds: +1200
League rankings: No. 11 in Elo / No. 13 in GAR
Most similar Cup winner: 2023 Vegas Golden Knights
Cup calling card: A unique championship formula
Is it any surprise that, if the 2024 Golden Knights are to win the Cup again, they’ll be using the same formula as the 2023 team did? This season, Vegas returned 87.5% of the GAR from their championship roster (Reilly Smith and Laurent Brossoit being the only major losses), and most of their additions came very recently at the trade deadline. So it’s mostly going to be the same approach as last season — and that approach was unique for a historical champion. The Knights’ best players produced far fewer GAR than the average champ, relying instead on superior depth and key returns from injured reserve in the nick of time; they also leaned more heavily on goaltending than the typical Cup winner, even after injuries shook up their plans in net. This year’s squad is shaping up in almost exactly the same way, with top GAR producer Jonathan Marchessault (15.5) sitting well below the average No. 1 player on a title team (23.4), while the Knights are “still grinding” in the face of injuries and an unsettled goaltending situation. But Vegas made it work last year, and that means the blueprint is there for another run in 2024.
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Auston Matthews scores in 8th straight game to reach 69 goals
Auston Matthews notches his 69th goal of the season for the Maple Leafs after scoring in his eighth consecutive game.
Stanley Cup odds: +1400
League rankings: No. 8 in Elo / No. 9 in GAR
Most similar Cup winner: 1990 Edmonton Oilers
Cup calling card: An MVP-level top-line center
It’s fitting that one of the main teams trying to end Canada’s three-decade Cup drought bears its greatest resemblance to one of the last Canadian champs from before the drought began. The story of the 1990 Oilers is fascinating in its own right — how did a team that lost the Great One, Wayne Gretzky, turn around and win another Cup just a few years later? But the particular strengths of that team revolved around team captain Mark Messier, who stepped out of Gretzky’s shadow to win his first MVP while producing the best season of his career to that point. The shadow Auston Matthews is trying to escape involves this franchise’s considerable history of disappointment; he is combating it with an all-time season (potentially the league’s first 70-goal effort since 1993) and a strong MVP push of his own. Now Matthews and the Leafs must hope goalie Joseph Woll can do his best Bill Ranford impression during the playoffs.
Stanley Cup odds: +1600
League rankings: No. 12 in Elo / No. 5 in GAR
Most similar Cup winner: 1998 Detroit Red Wings
Cup calling card: A strong core at both ends
In a certain sense, the 1998 Red Wings are an odd match for this year’s Canucks. That veteran-laden Detroit team was coming off a Stanley Cup in 1997, and in the middle of a stretch of consecutive playoff appearances that would eventually run to 25 years; Vancouver, meanwhile, is a younger team that has made the playoffs just once in the previous eight seasons and has made only a single second-round appearance since losing the 2011 Final. But regardless of how they got there, the two teams’ rosters are constructed in a similar manner. Start with an all-world defenseman — Quinn Hughes or Nicklas Lidström — and pair him with another strong D-partner (Filip Hronek, Larry Murphy) to suppress shots in front of a rock-solid netminder (Thatcher Demko, Chris Osgood). Add in talented forwards who play with a mix of finesse (Elias Pettersson and Brock Boeser, or Steve Yzerman and Slava Kozlov) and toughness (J.T. Miller or Brendan Shanahan) to power one of the league’s top offenses, and the ingredients are there for an all-around championship blend.
Neil Paine is a contributor for ESPN.