Why the Stars will win the Cup, and predictions for every NHL team’s finish in the 2024-25 season

Florida is going to regress, but it’s a manageable regression. It would be absolutely shocking if Sam Reinhart hit 57 goals again, but his regression could end up being 40 tallies instead. It would be surprising to see the Panthers lead the NHL in goals-against average again because of changes in their lineup, but probably not to the point where they’re 21st in the NHL like they were in Paul Maurice’s first season in Sunrise.

The Panthers have two dominant lines led by impactful stars in Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk. Forsling probably has his “Jaccob Slavin hipster Norris Trophy candidate” moment this season. I don’t think they reach the heights of 110 points again, but I also don’t think regular-season success is at all meaningful for a team that thinks it can win the Stanley Cup either as a division champion or as the last wild-card team. They’ve earned that swagger.

There are probably many around the NHL who would love the schadenfreude of watching the Lightning miss the playoffs after letting captain Steven Stamkos walk for a younger model in Jake Guentzel. But the Lightning have some spark left — if Andrei Vasilevskiy is Andrei Vasilevskiy again.

Please recall that Vasilevskiy underwent back surgery before last season that kept him out until Nov. 24. He never really found his game after that, going from 10.4 goals saved above expected in 2022-23 to minus-11 in 2023-24. That’s an unfathomable drop in quality for a goalie considered to be the best in the world until recently. I expect a massive rebound season for Vasilevskiy, and for a team that finished 29th in 5-on-5 save percentage last season.

But the actual challenge for the Lightning isn’t keeping the puck out of the net but finding ways to fill the opposite one. We know what we’re getting out of Guentzel, Brayden Point and Nikita Kucherov: a line that posted a 59.7% expected goals with Stamkos probably gets even more dominant with Guentzel. We don’t know what we’re getting from the rest of the lineup.

Can Cam Atkinson find his game again playing with Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli? Can they get any production from the bottom six by anyone not named Nick Paul or (potentially) Conor Geekie? Can Ryan McDonagh supplant the offense from the back end that left with Mikhail Sergachev for Utah?

The Lightning were 25th in expected goals at 5-on-5 last season. I’m not sure they’ve done enough to dramatically change that. But when the top line cooks like a Michelin-starred restaurant, maybe that doesn’t matter as much. It certainly didn’t last season, when the top line accounted for 45% of their total team goals.

A few days later, the drama ended with an eight-year contract and an $8.25 million average annual value.

OK, not all the drama. Now we get to see what Swayman looks like as the anointed starter and we get to see what a Boston goaltending tandem looks like when it’s Joonas Korpisalo instead of Linus Ullmark. Maybe coach Jim Montgomery’s system is so sturdy that they can plug-and-play a downgrade like Korpisalo. Or maybe we see a little wobble in the Bruins’ defense acumen without the best goalie tandem in the NHL as its foundation.

I still like the Bruins as a playoff team in part because I really like the signing of Elias Lindholm. He thrived as the glue guy for high-end offensive stars in Calgary. Now he gets to ride shotgun with David Pastrnak, the best goal-scoring winger in the league. Just having him reset their center depth is meaningful.

But let’s be real: The vibes are off in Boston, and not just because there might be fewer exaggerated goalie hugs. Coach Jim Montgomery enters the season on an expiring contract. He was praised by Neely and GM Don Sweeney before the season, with the latter saying extension talks were ongoing. But talks are not a contract. A contract is a contract. And Montgomery doesn’t have one after this season — and probably doesn’t get one after another playoff failure or, worse, a failure to qualify for them. Neither fate is all that outlandish.

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In full disclosure, I locked in these predictions before the NHL’s opening games in Prague, so of course I have instant buyer’s remorse on the Sabres, who had a score-adjusted 43.7% expected goals rate in two games. I’ve decided to go with “the Devils are just that good” for my own sanity, because the Sabres didn’t look like a playoff team in either of those Global Series games.

The reason I have Buffalo breaking through a playoff team is simple: I believe that new coach Lindy Ruff is going to find a way to get them to play to their identity without sacrificing offense for defense.

The Sabres dropped from 3.02 expected goals at even strength in 2022-23 to 2.77 last season, while their defense improved slightly. Some of that can be attributed to Tage Thompson not being himself due to a wrist injury and some other offensive regressions, but I think there was also a fundamental shift away from attacking offensively to insulating defensively.

The proof of concept for Ruff is the way the Devils played two years ago: first in expected goals, sixth in expected goals against at even strength. I see this Sabres roster as a hunk of clay he can shape into that kind of team — especially with the pop Buffalo offers on the blue line with Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power and others. Lindy loves him some offense from the defense.

Of course, that Devils team also got a save or 10 from its goaltenders that season, too. Buffalo’s playoff contention completely relies on whether Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is the goalie they saw and Devon Levi becomes the goalie they hoped they’d see last season. Both were well into the plus side on goals saved above expected, which is promising.

But in the end, the Sabres are going to have to score their way into breaking the longest playoff drought in the NHL (2010-11, when their coach was … Lindy Ruff). With Thompson, Dylan Cozens, JJ Peterka, Jack Quinn, Zach Benson and others, this team is stacked with talent. Ruff just needs to find a way to unlock it while getting those players to play 200-foot games. And I think he’s shown he can. Ask Jack Hughes and Jesper Bratt.

It’ll need to, because Ottawa has a classic problem in the NHL: Some of its best players are not all that good defensively. Brady Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, Thomas Chabot and Josh Norris are all drags defensively. That stings less when these players hit their marks offensively, which they didn’t last season. Tkachuk set a career high in goals (37) but dropped nine points. Stützle’s production dropped steeply: 21 goals and 20 points down, year over year.

Good health and great goaltending could result in a surprising season for Ottawa, but I can’t trust it. I’m prepared for another Senators season outside of the playoffs, which means another offseason of hockey fans trying to encourage SEAL Team Six to extract Tkachuk from the last years of his contract in Ottawa.

At this point, it’s not so much that I don’t have faith in the “Yzerplan” in Detroit than it’s that I couldn’t describe it to you.

The Red Wings have missed the playoffs in every year of Steve Yzerman’s tenure as general manager since he was hired in 2019. Their NHL roster skews older, and not just because Patrick Kane is back. The prospect pool has a collection of solid potential NHL contributors and a few standouts, but nothing resembling a franchise player, despite their time spent in the draft lottery. Is the plan to break the playoff drought, give the kids some seasoning and the use that sweet pizza money to lure big-name free agents to augment them? I don’t know. Right now, the plan seems like it’s produced a bubble team with little hope of upward mobility.

Stevie Y. must be thinking how much easier this was with Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman, Nikita Kucherov and Andrei Vasilevskiy as your pillars …

Still, there are people who see Detroit, rather than Buffalo or Ottawa, as the breakthrough team in the Atlantic. A lot would have to break right for that to happen, from the instant impact of Simon Edvinsson, to giant leaps forward from big-contract earners Lucas Raymond and Moritz Seider, to Cam Talbot helping to settle down a goaltending spot that had a cast of thousands auditioning in training camp. The NHL is a better place when the Red Wings are contending. I hope to visit that place again one day.

Can one line carry a team in the NHL? Absolutely. We see it every season. Can the trio of Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Juraj Slafkovsky carry the Canadiens to respectability? That’s probably too heavy a lift, but that trio is going to cook this season if given the chance after having shown so much pop last season.

Montreal is headed in the right direction. The Canadiens are a team you’re going to search out on ESPN+, if not to watch the top line but to see what highlight machine Lane Hutson is going to do on the back end as a rookie. An occasional fight from Arber Xhekaj, aka “WiFi,” doesn’t hurt the entertainment value either. Sam Montembeault might be one of the most underrated goalies in the NHL, even if a Montreal goaltender ever being “underrated” is rather difficult concept to grasp.

METROPOLITAN DIVISION

New Jersey Devils
New York Rangers
New York Islanders
Carolina Hurricanes
Washington Capitals
Pittsburgh Penguins
Philadelphia Flyers
Columbus Blue Jackets

Roughly 70% of the time last season, the Devils did not score the first goal of the game. That’s going to happen when your injury-depleted defense is too young and your goaltending is near the bottom of the NHL (30th). New Jersey’s epic faceplant in 2023-24, dropping 31 points in the standings year over year, was a byproduct of that “here we go again” dejection when they’d fall down 1-0. For every step forward, it was a pratfall backward.

GM Tom Fitzgerald did a remarkable, aggressive job in the offseason of plugging his team’s holes and turning the Devils back into the confident group that look poised to make a leap back into Stanley Cup contention. At least, in theory.

The goaltending is stabilized with Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen, who was acquired late last season. Brett Pesce and Brenden Dillon solidify their defense and add veteran voices to a dressing room that needed more of them. The forward depth was extended with Stefan Noesen, Paul Cotter and Tomas Tatar. And Sheldon Keefe was hired not only as a coach with some defensive bona fides, but as someone who has managed a young core of star players before in Toronto.

Ultimately, getting kicked in the gut last season was the best thing that could happen to this team. One season’s good fortune promises nothing for the future. Effort matters. Details matter. Leadership matters. Fitzgerald has put the Devils in a position to challenge for the Cup if they’re healthy, mentally and physically. It’s on the Devils to see that potential through. I’m confident they will.

Rangers defenseman Jacob Trouba believes this is the last run for their veteran core, which is something you’d expect to hear from a player who won’t be part of that core for much longer — and wouldn’t be now were it not for his trade protection.

But his point stands: Artemi Panarin (32), Chris Kreider (33), Mika Zibanejad (31), Vincent Trocheck (31) and Trouba (30) are all on the wrong side of 30, and the clock is ticking.

The group made the conference finals in two of the past three seasons, and it’ll keep contending so long as Igor Shesterkin is among the league’s best goaltenders, Adam Fox remains in the Norris Trophy conversation and Alexis Lafrenière is that point-per-game guy befitting his status as a first overall pick.

But for a team that should have some urgency about winning with this core, the Rangers didn’t do nearly enough to bolster this roster in the offseason. Reilly Smith is a fine complementary player, but he’s not the winger that Zibanejad and Kreider need. The Rangers couldn’t move Trouba and hence have his diminishing returns on a blue line that’s asking a lot of K’Andre Miller and Braden Schneider — especially since depending on a healthy Ryan Lindgren is like depending on the subway to run on time.

But they do have Matt Rempe back. Which is good for content.

Many folks are sleeping on the Islanders. Patrick Roy had this team humming at a .608 points percentage clip in 37 games after taking over for Lane Lambert last season. That’s due in large part to the fact that he dramatically improved their defensive zone play, which in turn led to fewer chances against Ilya Sorokin and Semyon Varlamov. Those goalies remain the bedrock for this incarnation of the Isles, along with their top four defensively — Alexander Romanov, Noah Dobson, Adam Pelech and Ryan Pulock. That’s as solid a back end as you’ll find in the East.

They have the personnel to play the kind of man-to-man defense that Roy prefers. A little defense goes a long way, especially for a team that saw 32% of its games end in overtime or a shootout last season, with 16 losses in extra time. What they need most however are offensive improvements.

The Islanders were 24th in even-strength scoring last season (2.65 goals per 60 minutes). Only the Capitals made the playoffs with a worse goals per 60 average (2.36). Adding free agent Anthony Duclair to the top line with Bo Horvat and Mathew Barzal give that trio a strong finisher. Brock Nelson is good for 30-plus goals, which is where Kyle Palmieri ended up as well last season. The two biggest questions for me on the Islanders’ offense: What do they have in Maxim Tsyplakov, a KHL import who worked his way up the lineup this preseason; and whether captain Anders Lee can get back to being the 50-point forward he was before last season.

The Islanders are a playoff team whether or not Sorkin dominates again, after an unexpected regression in 2023-24. But it sure would help the cause if he did.

Those are the three playoff teams from the Metro Division, which means that the Hurricanes are not one this season. Which is, admittedly, extremely contrarian and deserves an explanation.

For context: ESPN BET gives the Hurricanes the third best chance of winning the East and sets their point total at 100.5. They’ve made the playoffs in each of coach Rod Brind’Amour’s six seasons behind the bench, playing to a points percentage of .677 or better in each of the last four campaigns. They won the Metro for three straight seasons and were three points away from making it four in a row last season.

New GM Eric Tulsky leads a brilliant front office that did what it could to fill those holes or prevent new ones from opening up, like getting Martin Necas on a two-year bridge contract. I like William Carrier as a part of the Jordan Staal line. I’m less convinced that Sean Walker and Shayne Gostisbehere make up for what they lost on the blue line.

There are also lingering questions about their returning lineup, from Jesperi Kotkaniemi’s viability as a second-line center; to Frederik Andersen’s health and Pyotr Kochetkov’s readiness to be “the guy”; to whether we’re finally seeing the decline of Brent Burns as an offensive force.

I say they miss the playoffs by a hair. A brief step back before a leap forward with the next wave of Hurricanes, in players like defensemen Alexander Nikishin and Scott Morrow and forwards like Bradly Nadeau. I’m probably very wrong on this one. I’d actually like to be wrong on this one, because watching playoff hockey in Raleigh is a true perk of this gig. But the prediction is made.

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Entering last season, the Capitals and Penguins both seemed like teams in a state of stasis until their franchise icons finally moved on. Then Washington, under first-year coach Spencer Carbery, snagged a wild-card spot last season (then was swept by the Rangers in the first round).

What was assumed to be a middling vessel that existed so Alex Ovechkin could break Wayne Gretzky’s goals record ended up being … a middling vessel that was goalied to the playoffs by an outstanding Charlie Lindgren, playing behind a porous defensive and offensively challenged team.

Lindgren returns with a new tandem partner in ex-Golden Knights goalie Logan Thompson, who was one of several familiar faces to join Washington. Winger Andrew Mangiapane should bolster Ovechkin’s line, with T.J. Oshie on long-term injured reserve. Matt Roy is a stout defensive defenseman imported from the Kings. Then came the two really bold moves: Trading for Ottawa defenseman Jakob Chychrun, in the walk year of his contract; and assuming the next seven seasons of center Pierre-Luc Dubois’ contract in a desperate attempt to reload at center after the Nicklas Backstrom/Evgeny Kuznetsov era ended.

On paper, the numbers say this is a better team than the one that made the playoffs last season. But there are really only two numbers that Capitals fans care about this season: No. 50, as in the anniversary season for this franchise; and No. 42, as in the number of goals Ovechkin needs to pass Gretzky. (I predict he does it this season.) Everything else, at least for now, is gravy.

The Penguins will improve by several points season-over-season on the strength of their power play alone. How this assemblage of talent clicked at just a 15.3% clip last season is confounding. Special teams are cyclical, and the Penguins are a season removed from hitting at a 21.7% rate. The scored 23 more goals on the power play in 2022-23 than last season. When you consider the Penguins had the 31st worst points percentage in the NHL in one-goal games (.353) in 2023-24 … yeah, those goals matter. Hopefully new assistant coach — and Mike Sullivan doppelgänger — David Quinn can reverse their power-play fortunes.

Sullivan is in the first season of a contract extension that carries him through the 2026-27 season, signed before GM Kyle Dubas arrived. The majority of fans assume he won’t see the end of that contract in Pittsburgh, given the current trajectory of the team. This season projects to be the third straight outside of the playoffs, for a franchise that hasn’t won a playoff round since 2018, all of it under Sullivan.

The dynamic 19-year-old rookie has loads of offensive creativity and goal-scoring ability. He’s going to have a steep learning curve against NHL defenders. But there’s no denying that he has the potential to have a transformative effect on the Flyers’ offense and the franchise’s psyche, in much the same way that Kirill Kaprizov did for the Wild. As I reported recently, the assumed friction between flashy young rookie and curmudgeonly coach might be overstated. Remember that when Torts scratches him by Game 15.

I’m also intrigued to see if Jamie Drysdale can take a leap with Nick Seeler as his partner — and stay in the lineup, which is usually the concern with Drysdale.

Whatever happens with the Blue Jackets this season seems so inconsequential in the context of their grief. The shocking death of star winger Johnny Gaudreau in August has impacted the franchise in every way, on and off the ice, and will continue to do so throughout this season.

I look forward to those moments of joy found during what projects to be another long season in Columbus. Like the continued maturation of players such as Adam Fantilli, Kent Johnson, Kirill Marchenko and David Jiricek. Like the massive gathering of Jackets fans at the Horseshoe for that Stadium Series game against Detroit. This sport should be joyful, as Johnny Hockey would remind us with every stride, shot and smile.

CENTRAL DIVISION

Dallas Stars
Colorado Avalanche
Nashville Predators
Utah Hockey Club
Winnipeg Jets
Minnesota Wild
St. Louis Blues
Chicago Blackhawks

I remember what Tyler Seguin said after the Stars lost to Edmonton in the Western Conference finals, the second straight season that Dallas was ousted one round before the Stanley Cup Final:

“We went through a gauntlet and beat some really good teams and knew we had something special. We lost to a team that we thought we could beat and sometimes, that’s playoffs. Sometimes, it’s that one bounce, that one goal, that one save. That’s why we all love it. That’s why it’s the hardest damn trophy in the world to win.”

No lies told. The Stars were a 113-point team last season that fought through the Golden Knights and the Avalanche to get to Connor McDavid and the Oilers, who dropped them in six games. Dallas is beyond battle tested by now, and that includes a wave of young reinforcements that gained essential experience over these last two runs, like Wyatt Johnston, Logan Stankoven and Thomas Harley.

Johnston’s a key to this season. He likely replaces Joe Pavelski on the top line between Jason Robertson and Roope Hintz, and that’s an upgrade: As much as we love Pavs, the guy absolutely hit the wall in the Western Conference finals, with zero points in the series, his last before retirement. Johnston is going to bring some of the things that Pavelski did to that line, while also bringing more speed and puck possession.

The fact is that veterans like Pavelski and Ryan Suter were probably too “veteran” for the Stars in this moment. Now the age ceiling is captain Jamie Benn (35), forward Matt Duchene (34) and Seguin (33). Right behind them are players in their prime: Hintz (28), goalie Jake Oettinger (26), star defenseman Miro Heiskanen (25) and Robertson (25). Right behind them are the next wave, with Johnston, Stankoven & Co.

I have a concept called the “Hockey Parfait” in which every successful team has to have different layers of experience, all pushing each other to succeed, every flavor in balance to form a delicacy. I think GM Jim Nill, while not a pastry chef by trade, has constructed a delicious one this season.

This is a very, very good hockey team, and the moment is now to become a great one.

The Avalanche absolutely confound me. I spent many hours this preseason meditating on how good I think this team can be, and always come back to a series of questions for which I don’t have the answers.

When does Gabriel Landeskog return, and in what capacity? Can they rely on Valeri Nichushkin? When does Artturi Lehkonen return? Is the defense deep enough? Does Justus Annunen push out Alexandar Georgiev as the starter, or do they keep running it back with a guy who posted a .894 save percentage in the playoffs last season? Who do they add to their top six at the trade deadline? When is Mikko Rantanen getting paid, exactly?

The frustrating thing about all of this uncertainty is that the Avalanche are two seasons removed from a Stanley Cup championship and frequently have four of the best hockey players alive on the ice at the same time: Nathan MacKinnon, the reigning league MVP; Rantanen, one of the top five scoring wingers in the NHL; Cale Makar, a generational talent on defense; and Devon Toews, who is basically the Pippen to Makar’s Jordan on that blue line.

I should feel “Dallas-and-Edmonton” confident about the Avalanche as a Stanley Cup contender in the West, and I don’t. Not without clarity for all the questions above. And not without a few more championship-quality players in the mix — either internal candidates that elevate their games or trade deadline additions. Which is to say that due respect to Casey Mittelstadt and Ross Colton, I’m still waiting for them to replace what Nazem Kadri gave them.

The best thing about Steven Stamkos and Jonathan Marchessault signing with the Predators — besides having a chance to wear their Canadian tuxedos around town with no shame — is that they both fit the historic dogma of this franchise.

Nashville has always had a defiant streak, what with being a “nontraditional market” and all. It has also provided a landing spot for other teams’ high-profile castaways: Think P.K. Subban or Filip Forsberg or Steve Sullivan. And it has also been a little starstruck, too: Remember signing Paul Kariya as a free agent and trading for Peter Forsberg?

Stamkos and Marchessault add some offensive wizardry to a lineup that had a higher expected goals (3.04) than actual goals (2.94) at even strength; and to a power play (21.6%) that ranked 16th overall in the NHL last season. They’re expected to flank spunky scoring center Tommy Novak, establishing a second scoring line opponents have to sweat out behind the Forsberg-Ryan O’Reilly-Gustav Nyquist group.

But the Predators made two other moves that cement them as a playoff team and potential Cup contender for me. I love the Brady Skjei addition on defense, as an upgrade over Ryan McDonagh. He’s not a Norris Trophy-caliber defenseman like Roman Josi — who I think wins it again this season — but he brings a similar balance of offense and defense. Obviously, securing goalie Juuse Saros on an eight-year deal worth $7.74 million annually is essential to their success — and cheaper than Jeremy Swayman’s new deal, too.

I loved what GM Barry Trotz and coach Andrew Brunette started last year in Nashville. I’ve really excited to see what Phase 2 looks like this season.

The Utah Hockey Club might not have a nickname yet, but it will have a playoff berth this season.

I had one NHL general manager tell me that he thought the Arizona Coyotes (RIP) would have made the playoff cut last season had their campaign not been derailed by the relocation news leaking. It’s hard to argue with that: They were 23-19-3 in late January and then spun out into a 14-game winless streak, picking up just two loser points in that span. After that, their playoff hopes were scuttled like an Alex Meruelo arena bid.

The relocation to Salt Lake City brings a fresh start, a wave of fan enthusiasm and ownership willing to take on actual NHL players making actual NHL salaries. Augmenting what was already a solid young team with defensemen Mikhail Sergachev, John Marino and Ian Cole, while adding former Panther Kevin Stenlund as a depth forward. All of them help make them a sounder defensive team in front of Connor Ingram and Karel Vejmelka, which could be one of the best tandems in the NHL if Vejmelka can play like he did two seasons ago.

They’re not the deepest team, especially at center, but they have the potential for two strong scoring lines: one anchored by captain Clayton Keller and one anchored by a dynamic duo of Logan Cooley and Dylan Guenther. If Utah is close to the playoffs, it has a war chest of draft picks it could use to augment this lineup — and owners in Ryan and Ashley Smith who have shown no hesitancy in taking on salary, unlike the team’s previous incarnation.

But mostly, I’m picking Utah to make the playoffs because this new fan base is going to put wind in its sales, enthusiastically supporting a new team in town. Sure, some of them won’t be able to see the entire rink, but they players will hear them, darn it. Provided they don’t eat too many of those $3 hot dogs and need a nap by the third period.

With Utah in, someone had to be out, and that someone is the Jets.

The term “mushy middle” describes that area of the standings where teams are neither great nor terrible, and I’d apply the same term to the Jets’ roster — and not just because the center spot is their weakest area, led by Mark Scheifele, a No. 2 center in top-line clothing. Although they do have an elite defensive center in Adam Lowry, this is a team that doesn’t always defend consistently.

There’s offensive pop in the forward group with players such as Kyle Connor, Nikolaj Ehlers, and Cole Perfetti, but not enough of it. I’ve got confidence in Josh Morrissey and Dylan DeMelo as a top pairing. I lack it for the other two defensive tandems — I think this team will miss the truculence of Dillon, for example. Going from Laurent Brossoit to Kaapo Kahkonen or Eric Comrie backing up Hellebuyck is a downgrade.

Again, they outkicked their coverage on offense last season, and were carried by Hellebuyck in a season that saw him win the Vezina Trophy and finish sixth for the Hart. I think an improved division means they take a step back in the standings, playing closer to their underlying numbers, and finish just out of the money.

I think the Wild are about a year away from doing something really interesting in his division.

A year from now, they won’t have the $14.8 million salary cap albatross of the Zach Parise and Ryan Suter buyouts, which will allow GM Bill Guerin to address some of the scoring needs on this roster. A year from now, Marco Rossi and Brock Faber will have had another season of experience as vital parts of this roster. A year from now, Marc-Andre Fleury will be a guest analyst on a French-language hockey broadcast and Jesper Wallstedt will have a regular spot in an NHL tandem.

There’s always a chance that Minnesota plays beyond expectations this season if their scoring levels up. The Wild were the best team in the NHL last season in even-strength expected goals against under both Dean Evason and John Hynes. They’ll need offensive contributions that go beyond Kirill Kaprizov, Joel Eriksson Ek and Matt Boldy, who accounted for over 42% of their goals last season.

But most likely, they’ll just wait for next year.

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I think it’s in the Blues‘ best interests to have the best draft lottery odds possible at this point, but GM Doug Armstrong’s teams have a stubborn way of always competing. It’s sort of in the franchise’s DNA, having had only one season with a points percentage of less than .500 since 2008-09.

The successful offer sheets for Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway are an indication that Armstrong knows this team needs to get younger and, especially in the latter case, faster. But those opportunities are few and far between in the offseason. The most direct path to that end is the draft. I fear the Blues will be just good enough not to maximize their chances there.

One NHL general manager recently told me he was high on the Blackhawks. “Not playoffs high. Just ‘no more freebie points’ high,” he said.

That checks. I think the Blackhawks could easily have a 20-point improvement year over year if Connor Bedard is healthy.

Their top six was bolstered by a trio of imports: winger Tyler Bertuzzi, a great passer and a pain to play against; speedy Ilya Mikheyev, who can clear 20 goals; and Teuvo Teravainen, a quintessential glue guy. We know what we have in Bedard after he tallied 22 goals in 68 games as an 18-year-old last season. They sky’s the limit. What makes the Blackhawks better is a second line anchored by Taylor Hall and Philipp Kurashev, who quietly broke out with 54 points last season; and a third line of Nick Foligno, Jason Dickinson and Joey Anderson that way outplayed its underlying numbers last season.

Adding Alec Martinez and TJ Brodie to the blue line is a leap in quality, even at their advanced ages. (In fairness, Brodie is only 34 but there are some miles on those tires.) Petr Mrazek remains a goalie who looks like he can win the Vezina for about three weeks every few months, before regressing to the mean.

PACIFIC DIVISION

Edmonton Oilers
Vancouver Canucks
Vegas Golden Knights
Los Angeles Kings
Seattle Kraken
Anaheim Ducks
Calgary Flames
San Jose Sharks

After watching that Amazon Prime NHL show, I’m not soon going to forget that image of Oilers star Connor McDavid openly weeping in the locker room after Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final. Not just for the novelty of seeing an elite athlete succumb to their emotions in a losing effort — and, we should note, signing off on having the world see it too — but in understanding how much this all meant to McDavid.

It’s one thing to proclaim “Cup or bust.” It’s another to understand how it impacts a superstar when the ultimate option was “bust.”

It’s not difficult to glean why the Oilers are the Cup favorite this season. The Panthers lost in the Final and returned to win the Cup the following season, so why not the Oilers? Especially when McDavid and Leon Draisaitl were that gutted after losing. Especially when this is probably the best team they’ve played on, with the additions of Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson to an already loaded roster. Especially when they appear to have found the right head coach (Kris Knoblauch), the right goaltender (Stuart Skinner) and a No. 1 defenseman (Evan Bouchard) after so many years of searching.

I think they win the Pacific with ease, return to the playoffs … and wait until next year, failing to get out of the conference. But hey, with Draisaitl signing his extension with the assumption that McDavid will do the same, at least there isn’t that same apocalyptic urgency that the Oilers had last postseason about their window to win closing.

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Rick Tocchet had an airtight case for the Jack Adams last season, what with the Canucks going from a goals-against average of 3.61 in 2022-23 to sixth in the league at 2.70 last season, his first full term as head coach. He turned them into a division champion and a team that came perilously close to saving McDavid’s Stanley Cup Final tears by eliminating the Oilers in the second round, only to lose to Edmonton in Game 7.

There’s naturally going to be some regression from a team that hit so many high notes last season, but how much of it, really? Does J.T. Miller dip to 99 points again? Is Quinn Hughes only a point per game defenseman? Maybe Brock Boeser falls off his 40-goal pace, but the Canucks would probably just be happy if he hits 81 games again.

One guy that will top his performance last season is Elias Pettersson. I’m not the biggest Jake DeBrusk fan due to his streakiness, but I love the fit with him and Petey. I don’t think the star center flirting with 100 points this season isn’t out of the question.

But due respect to Arturs Silovs, the Canucks’ championship aspirations rest on the health of goalie Thatcher Demko. He’ll probably miss the first month of the season after finishing second for the Vezina last season. If he can stay healthy and play to his ability … boy, there’s a lot to like with this Canucks team. But it’s a very tough division.

“Where are their wingers?” asked one NHL executive when we were chatting about the Golden Knights before the season. It’s a fair question for those of us unfamiliar with Pavel Dorofeyev, unconvinced Alexander Holtz can put it all together or unaware that Victor Olofsson was still a first-liner in the NHL. (Chemistry with Jack Eichel trumps all preconceptions.)

This isn’t the first or last time that depth has seemingly been drained from a Golden Knights team. But they’re still dealing from a stacked deck: Eichel, Mark Stone, Tomas Hertl, William Karlsson, Ivan Barbashev. They’ll miss Marchessault, of course, and especially in the postseason. But they’ll generate enough offense.

In between a thinner forward group and a decent goaltending battery of Adin Hill and Ilya Samsonov stands the reason the Golden Knights are going to make the playoffs and probably win a round: Shea Theodore and Alex Pietrangelo, Noah Hanifin and Nicolas Hague, Brayden McNabb and Zach Whitecloud. As solid a sextet of defensemen as there are in the NHL, and a steadying presence for a typically tumultuous team.

I was very tempted to jettison the Kings from my playoff picture after Drew Doughty’s injury, which could sideline him for half the season. I’m hoping it’s much less time than that; but even if it isn’t, I think the Kings have enough here to stay in a playoff spot in the Pacific.

Anze Kopitar, Quinton Byfield and Phillip Danault are the primary reason why. Most teams in the NHL would kill for that kind of center depth. A fading superstar with gas left in the tank; a budding superstar who’s only scratched the surface; and one of the best defensive centers in the game. That’s a stabilizing force for the Kings, in a season full of other question marks.

Byfield’s the real key here. He found his game on the wing last season. After the Pierre-Luc Dubois debacle, it was time for the natural center to shift to the middle. They’ve flanked him with Kevin Fiala and Warren Foegele in the preseason, a duo that sets Byfield up for success. They need him to thrive in this spot to have a prayer for the playoffs.

Los Angeles has a new coach in Jim Hiller, who was their interim bench boss last season after Todd McLellan was fired. They went 21-12-1 with Hiller, who maintained that defense-first was still the right path for this team. That’s probably wise considering their diminished blue line, and having to play in front of a specious goaltending tandem of Darcy Kuemper and David Rittich.

It’s fantastic they got anything of NHL quality back for dumping the last seven years of Dubois’ contract, but Kuemper was one of the worst goalies in the league last season analytically: minus-15.6 goals saved above expected. Woof.

They join a team that’s stunningly average. Solid but not spectacular. In the hunt but not a true contender. They’re frustratingly reminiscent of Ron Francis’ teams as general manager of the Carolina Hurricanes: Middling at everything, offensively challenged and — critically — constantly falling short of the playoff cut.

New head coach Dan Bylsma needs to find ways to activate this team’s even-strength scoring. I think we all expected some level of regression after their ridiculous performance at even strength in Year 2: 3.39 goals per 60 minutes and an 11.2% shooting percentage. But last season’s drop (2.25, 8.0%) was so severe it probably gave a few players the bends. Can he turn around some of those down offensive years, particularly that of Beniers?

As you can tell, I’m a little on the fence about this Kraken team. It has the potential to jump up to the fourth spot in the division if things trend in the right direction and someone like Wright has a breakthrough. But that would also depend on Joey Daccord repeating his 50-game dazzler from last season (.916 save percentage!) and Philipp Grubauer being something better than his minus-9.4 goals saved above average. And I’m skeptical that happens in both goaltenders’ cases.

The difference between Anaheim and the two teams that will finish in back of it is that the Ducks are no longer actively trying to lose. It’s just that they’re so disappointing in some areas that they won’t be able to help it.

Coach Greg Cronin managed to squeeze out a respectable defensive season from a team that seems so disinterested by the concept. The Ducks were 23rd in the NHL in expected goals against at even strength (2.85), which marks a remarkable turnaround from the previous season when they were last in the league, at 3.52. Veteran Radko Gudas, named Ducks captain in the offseason, helped stabilize things on the blue line and balance out the indifferent defense from young players like Mason McTavish.

There’s a ton of talent in the pond for the Ducks. They’re another team you fire up the ESPN+ to watch, and not just because of their sweet new sweaters. Cutter Gauthier and Leo Carlsson? Yes please. Watching Olen Zellweger become a legit NHL defenseman after his “soft launch” last season? Sure. The continuing adventure of Trevor Zegras before his inevitable trade? Absolutely.

It’s all about progress and promise for the Ducks this season. They might quack a bit louder in the standings if John Gibson (when healthy) and Lukas Dostal steal a game here and there, but mostly we’re here to watch for which ducklings are ready to fly.

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The Flames aren’t dummies. They can see what happened in Edmonton after several lean years and some draft lottery luck. They know from their own recent history that their best seasons were the product of homegrown talents becoming stars … before deciding to move elsewhere. There’s one clear path for GM Craig Conroy to take with this franchise, and it’s the one where they trip and fall down the standings in the Pacific Division.

To that end: The Flames said goodbye to Hanifin, Elias Lindholm, Andrew Mangiapane, Jacob Markstrom, Chris Tanev, Tyler Toffoli and Nikita Zadorov over the last two seasons. They’ve done minimal work to replace them: Bringing on free agents like Anthony Mantha and Ryan Lomberg this summer and handing the crease over to Dustin Wolf and Dan Vladar? The Flames are, in fact, a team.

They still have some legit game-altering players. After a nightmarish December (one point in 13 games), Jonathan Huberdeau actually finished the season strong. MacKenzie Weegar and Rasmus Andersson are better than average on defense. Nazem Kadri and Mikael Backlund would be ideal two-way centers on any number of contenders. One wonders where some of them will be playing in the near future if this all goes according to plan in Calgary.

The Sharks are going to be terrible, but I think they’ll be “fun bad” and not just “bad bad.”

At least that’s my hope. It really all depends on whether first-year coach Ryan Warsofsky allows Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith to let their scoring freak flags fly as rookies or if he’s going to, like, make them backcheck. Celebrini has a Calder Trophy in him if the Sharks allow him to just blossom offensively, especially with having an old scoring hand like Toffoli in the mix to help create and bury those chances. The Blackhawks weren’t looking for Bedard to be Patrice Bergeron in Year 1. The same courtesy should be extended to Macklin.

This fan base needs the visceral jolt of carefree phenom scoring while the losses mount. Another year in the tank at The Tank, and everything’s coming up teal in 2025-26.