Our guide to every Week 16 NFL game: Matchup previews, predictions, picks and nuggets

Stat to know: Running back Bijan Robinson is one touchdown away from being the first Falcons player with 1,000 rushing yards and 10 rushing touchdowns in a season since Devonta Freeman in 2016.

Bold prediction: Penix will record a 60-plus QBR. Facing the Giants, the Falcons should be able to limit the ask on him, and I think the result will be an efficient performance in a win. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Falcons are one game back of the Buccaneers for the NFC South lead. Atlanta currently has a 29% chance of making the playoffs and a 21% chance of winning the division, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.

Injuries: Giants | Falcons

Fantasy X factor: Nabers. He has four-plus receptions in every game this season, the second-longest streak in the league, and 10-plus targets in nine of those games. The Falcons’ defense gives up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, so starting the Giants’ only viable threat would be the smart play. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Giants are 1-8 ATS in their past nine games. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their past four games. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Falcons 28, Giants 14
Moody’s pick: Falcons 28, Giants 17
Walder’s pick: Falcons 24, Giants 16
FPI prediction: ATL, 62.9% (by an average of 5.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Giants turn back to Lock as starting QB vs. Falcons … Falcons’ Cousins: Told Penix ‘I’d be in his corner’ … Giants’ Daboll and Schoen: Stay or go?

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: DET -6.5 (47.5 O/U)

Lions storyline to watch: Detroit has been bitten by the injury bug with a league-high 21 players currently on the injured reserve list, including running back David Montgomery, who sustained a torn MCL in the loss to the Bills. Without Montgomery, coach Dan Campbell is confident in Jahmyr Gibbs’ ability as the Lions’ “lead horse.” Gibbs said his on-field mindset won’t change. “I’ve been doing this my whole life, so I don’t look at it any different,” he said. — Eric Woodyard

Bears storyline to watch: Chicago’s eight straight losses are taking a toll on rookie quarterback Caleb Williams. “Losing is one of those things that really affects me,” Williams said. “It’s tough.” The Bears have their second straight NFC North matchup, coming off a loss to Minnesota in which they converted only one third-down opportunity. Williams has the third-worst off-target percentage (21.4) this season and a 51 QBR against man coverage, which Detroit plays at the highest rate in the league (56%). — Courtney Cronin

Stat to know: The Bears’ eight straight losses are tied for the second-longest losing streak in franchise history and their longest since losing 14 consecutive games in 2022-23.

Bold prediction: The Lions’ defense — yes, even with all the injuries — will bounce back and give up 15 or fewer points to the Bears. There’s real reason for concern for the Lions’ defense when it faces a good offense, as it did against the Bills last week. The Bears are not that. — Walder

What’s at stake: With a win, the Lions’ chances at the No.1 seed in the NFC improve to 65%, per ESPN Analytics. With a loss, they fall to 26%. Read more.

Injuries: Lions | Bears

Fantasy X factor: Gibbs. He has averaged 16.1 touches per game, and the Lions rely heavily on their running backs, backed by an offensive line that ranks 13th in run block win rate (71.6%). Plus, the Bears’ defense gives up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to running backs. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their past five as home underdogs. They have covered in three in a row. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Lions 34, Bears 24
Moody’s pick: Lions 30, Bears 24
Walder’s pick: Lions 34, Bears 13
FPI prediction: DET, 71.9% (by an average of 8.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Campbell takes blame for loss vs. Bills … Losing ‘really affects me,’ says Bears QB Williams … DE Hutchinson on track for Super Bowl return … Coach Thomas Brown defends Bears’ effort during skid

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: CIN -7.5 (46.5 O/U)

Browns storyline to watch: At quarterback, the Browns are turning to Dorian Thompson-Robinson, a 2023 fifth-round pick who will make his fourth career start Sunday. His mobility should open some things in the run game, but, like the recently benched Jameis Winston, he will have to take better care of the ball. Thompson-Robinson has thrown seven interceptions to only one touchdown already. — Daniel Oyefusi

Bengals storyline to watch: Browns defensive end Myles Garrett has sacked quarterback Joe Burrow nine times, the most of any opponent in Burrow’s career. Cincinnati is trying to blank Garrett’s sack count against Burrow for the first time in five seasons. Getting Cody Ford (flu) back will be big for an offensive line still without Orlando Brown Jr. (fibula). — Ben Baby

Stat to know: Burrow has a 72 QBR in every Bengals loss this season. That’s the second-best mark since the metric was first calculated in 2006 (Ben Roethlisberger had a 76 QBR in six losses in 2018).

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Bold prediction: Bengals edge rusher Trey Hendrickson will record at least 2.5 sacks and reemerge as a defensive player of the year candidate. Thompson-Robinson hasn’t taken sacks at high rate in his career, but the sample is limited and I expect the Bengals to be ahead, which leads to more sacks. — Walder

What’s at stake: Any chance for the Bengals to make the postseason rides on this game. They will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss to the Browns, and they currently hold the ninth-best odds at 6%, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.

Injuries: Browns | Bengals

Fantasy X factor: Browns running back Jerome Ford. Without Nick Chubb (foot), Ford should lead the Browns’ committee for the rest of the season. Expect him to get plenty of touches, even if the Bengals get out ahead early. He has been the primary back on passing downs all season, so he’ll stay involved no matter the score. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Browns are 0-3 ATS in their past three, 1-5 ATS in their past six and 3-9 ATS in their past 12. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bengals 30, Browns 13
Moody’s pick: Bengals 31, Browns 14
Walder’s pick: Bengals 27, Browns 13
FPI prediction: CIN, 67.3% (by an average of 6.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Browns bench Winston; Thompson-Robinson to start vs. Bengals … Bengals RB Brown staking claim as featured running back … South Florida route-running culture embedded in Cleveland

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: IND -3.5 (42.5 O/U)

Titans storyline to watch: Calvin Ridley needs 221 receiving yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark. He didn’t register a reception in the first meeting with the Colts despite being targeted eight times by then-starter Will Levis. Mason Rudolph will be the quarterback this time, which is good news for Ridley as his season-high 143 receiving yards came with Rudolph throwing to him against the Lions. — Turron Davenport

Colts storyline to watch: The Colts enter this week ranked 28th in yards allowed per game (366.1), their lowest mark since 2017 when they finished 4-12. Somehow, they’ve ranked better in scoring defense at 21st with 23.5 points per game. But an underrated byproduct has been Indianapolis having the NFL’s lowest time of possession at 26 minutes, 41 seconds per game. — Stephen Holder

Stat to know: Titans running back Tony Pollard needs 85 scrimmage yards to reach 1,300 for the third straight season. He would join Derrick Henry as the only players to reach that mark in each of the past three seasons.

Bold prediction: Colts wide receiver Adonai Mitchell will catch a 30-plus-air-yard pass. He has been targeted on five such throws this season and has zero receptions, but I’m convinced the connection is going to happen this weekend. ESPN’s open score loves Mitchell, giving him an 83 in the category. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Colts were eliminated from playoff contention after the Chargers defeated the Broncos on Thursday night. But the Titans still have something on the line, as their current 39% chance at a top-five pick will improve with a win, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.

Injuries: Titans | Colts

Fantasy X factor: Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson. He struggled as a passer last week, completing just 44.7% of attempts, but he rushed for 46 yards and a touchdown. This week, he faces a Titans defense giving up the 11th-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and giving up the eighth-most rushing yards. Expect him to take advantage. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Titans are 2-8 ATS as underdogs this season. Six straight Titans road games have gone over the total. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Colts 21, Titans 12
Moody’s pick: Colts 24, Titans 13
Walder’s pick: Colts 17, Titans 9
FPI prediction: IND, 49.9% (by an average of 0.1 points)

Matchup must-reads: Benched Levis: Still believe I can be Titans’ franchise QB … Butker, Bates and the life of an NFL kicker … Colts are good on first drives, but then fall apart

1 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LAR -3 (46.5 O/U)

Rams storyline to watch: This is the 18th time starting quarterbacks Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers will face each other, which will be tied for the fifth most among starting quarterbacks in the Super Bowl era (including playoffs), according to ESPN Research. Rodgers has won 13 of them, but Stafford might have the upper hand this time since the Jets have won only twice in their past 11 games. — Sarah Barshop

Jets storyline to watch: Rodgers needs two touchdown passes to become only the fifth player in NFL history to hit the 500 mark. He’s playing his best ball of the year, having thrown for 628 yards, 4 touchdowns and 0 interceptions in the past two games. The offense has produced 58 points and 802 yards, which are its most in back-to-back games this season. — Rich Cimini

Stat to know: The Rams are looking to become the first team in NFL history to make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons after being three games under .500 at some point in the year.

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Bold prediction: Rams rookie Jared Verse will record at least a 25% pass rush win rate and a sack against Jets rookie Olu Fashanu. The offensive tackle’s 87% pass block win rate is better than what Tyron Smith posted before his injury, but it is still below average. Verse is anything but average, and Sunday’s game could bolster his chances at Defensive Rookie of the Year. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Rams currently have a 54% chance to make playoffs and a 53% chance to win NFC West, per ESPN Analytics. Those chances improve to 65% and 64%, respectively, with a win. And they fall to 43% and 42%, respectively, with a loss. Read more.

Injuries: Rams | Jets

Fantasy X factor: Rodgers. He came alive on Sunday against the Jaguars, dropping a season-high 30 fantasy points. That’s not surprising since Jacksonville has given up the most points to quarterbacks this season. He’s set up for another big game with Davante Adams and Garrett Wilson as his top receivers because the Rams’ defense gives up the 13th-most passing yards per game (218.1). See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Jets are 1-5 ATS against teams with winning records this season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Rams 28, Jets 20
Moody’s pick: Rams 28, Jets 24
Walder’s pick: Rams 24, Jets 19
FPI prediction: LAR, 51.1% (by an average of 0.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: McVay galvanizes Rams to three-game win stretch … The real Rodgers saving his best for last with Jets … Wilson tries to clear air after sideline outburst

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: PHI -3.5 (45.5 O/U)

Eagles storyline to watch: The Eagles’ pass game awoke against the Steelers after several quiet games, with quarterback Jalen Hurts throwing for 290 yards and a pair of scores. Wide receiver A.J. Brown was targeted a season-high 11 times and finished with eight catches for 110 yards. Good things happen when Hurts goes Brown’s way, as the duo tops the NFL in yards per attempt (12.1). — Tim McManus

Commanders storyline to watch: In the first meeting in Week 11, a 26-18 Eagles win, Commanders leading receiver Terry McLaurin was targeted a season-low two times. Philadelphia often bracketed him in the red zone, and it didn’t help that he ran 22 of his 25 routes from the left side. But, in the past three games, Washington has moved him around more — 40 routes run from the left side and 22 on the right. More importantly, he has more than nine targets on both sides during this stretch. — John Keim

Stat to know: Hurts has 14 rushing touchdowns, which is the most in the NFL and tied for the third most by a quarterback through a season in NFL history. He had 15 in 2023, which Josh Allen matched in the same year for the second-most ever.

Bold prediction: McLaurin will record under 35 receiving yards. I’m fully buying the Eagles’ secondary, and he is far and away the most important Commanders target for a defense to try to stop. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Eagles can lock up the NFC East title with a win. If the Commanders win, they need the Falcons to lose, as well as losses by either the Rams or Seahawks, to make the postseason. Read more.

Injuries: Eagles | Commanders

Fantasy X factor: Eagles running back Saquon Barkley. The Commanders’ defensive front ranks 24th in run stop win rate (29.1%), while the Eagles’ offensive line ranks ninth in run block win rate (72.9%). Washington also gives up the sixth-most rushing yards per game to running backs and is giving up 5.0 yards per carry. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Commanders are 10-3-1 ATS in the first quarter this season, which is the best in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Eagles 28, Commanders 27
Moody’s pick: Eagles 27, Commanders 24
Walder’s pick: Eagles 24, Commanders 17
FPI prediction: PHI, 58.8% (by an average of 3.3 points)

Matchup must-reads: Eagles revive passing game as QB Hurts deals with broken finger … Bill provision may aid Commanders return to D.C. … Wives of Commanders kickers go into labor at same time

1 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: ARI -5 (47.5 O/U)

Cardinals storyline to watch: The Panthers’ struggles throwing the ball this season will give the Cardinals a prime opportunity to continue their march toward a playoff spot. Their defense is giving up 217 passing yards per game and 6.94 passing yards per play and will line up across an offense that is among the worst passing teams in the NFL, averaging 186 yards per game (29th) and 5.69 yards per play (28th). — Josh Weinfuss

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Panthers storyline to watch: Carolina probably will be without one of its best remaining defensive linemen (A’Shawn Robinson, knee) on a unit that already ranks last in the NFL against the run (giving up 173 yards per game). It also lost two more linebackers to IR (Trevin Wallace and Claudin Cherelus). That’s not good news when you’re facing the league’s seventh-best run offense, averaging 141 yards, and an elusive quarterback in Kyler Murray. — David Newton

Stat to know: With a loss, the Panthers would clinch five or fewer wins for the fifth time in the past six seasons. Before 2019, the franchise had only three seasons with five or fewer wins since they played their first NFL season in 1995.

Bold prediction: The Cardinals will score 35-plus points. It’s being slept on as to just how good Murray has been this season. He ranks fourth in QBR (68.4) without an exceptional offensive line or wide receiver room. And this week, he gets to show off against a Carolina defense that’s 31st in EPA (expected points added) allowed per play and 30th in EPA allowed per dropback. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Cardinals are a game back of the Rams and Seahawks for first place in the NFC West. Arizona enters Sunday with a 14% chance to win the division, per ESPN Analytics. Read more.

Injuries: Cardinals | Panthers

Fantasy X factor: Cardinals running back James Conner. He has averaged 18.4 touches per game and exploded for a season-high 30.8 fantasy points in Week 14. Now, he faces a Panthers defense that gives up the most fantasy points per game to running backs. Expect another big game. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Panthers have covered five straight games as underdogs. They are 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Cardinals 30, Panthers 21
Moody’s pick: Cardinals 30, Panthers 20
Walder’s pick: Cardinals 37, Panthers 17
FPI prediction: ARI, 74.6% (by an average of 9.7 points)

Matchup must-reads: Cardinals safety Baker lands 3-year extension … Sunday’s loss to Cowboys a microcosm of Panthers’ issues

Bold prediction: Bills edge Von Miller will record at least one sack. He has only one sack since returning from suspension in Week 9, but he actually boasts a 25% pass rush win rate at edge in that span, which is third best at the position. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Bills are in a fight with the Chiefs for the No. 1 seed. Buffalo’s chances increase to 25% with a win and fall to 3.6% with a loss, per ESPN Analytics. On the other end, the Patriots’ odds at the No. 1 pick climb to 30% with a loss. Read more.

Injuries: Patriots | Bills

Fantasy X factor: Bills wide receiver Khalil Shakir. He has been targeted often by Allen, with seven or more targets in eight games and two with 10 or more. Shakir has scored 16 or more fantasy points in consecutive games. He should do well against the Patriots’ defense, especially from the slot. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Patriots have been 14-point underdogs only one other time in the past 30 seasons — 2023 against the Bills, when they lost by six. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Bills 33, Patriots 17
Moody’s pick: Bills 41, Patriots 13
Walder’s pick: Bills 27, Patriots 17
FPI prediction: BUF, 82.5% (by an average of 13.9 points)

Matchup must-reads: Mayo ‘didn’t mean anything’ with playcalling remark … Allen reaches new heights at QB, keeps Bills rolling

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: LV -1.5 (40.5 O/U)

Jaguars storyline to watch: Jacksonville has really struggled preventing the big play. The Jaguars have given up a league-high 89 explosive plays (rushes of 15 or more yards and receptions of 30 or more yards). They’ve also given up 16 touchdowns on those plays, which is tied with Cleveland for the most. That’s a good matchup for the Raiders, who rank 22nd in the NFL with 44 offensive plays of 20 or more yards. — Michael DiRocco

Raiders storyline to watch: With only six catches in the Raiders’ past two games, Brock Bowers has fallen to fourth in the NFL with 90 receptions (he was leading the league two weeks ago). Despite the team’s quarterback issues, he needs 32 more yards to be the third rookie tight end to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards in NFL history, joining Mike Ditka (1,076) and Kyle Pitts (1,026). He will face a Jaguars team that has the worst pass defense in the league (264.3 yards per game). — Paul Gutierrez

Stat to know: If the Raiders lose out in their final three games, they will tie their longest losing streak in franchise history (13 straight in 1962). After this week, they face the Saints and Chargers to end the season.

Bold prediction: The Jaguars’ offensive line will post its strongest pass block win rate of the season (75%). Going against the Raiders without Maxx Crosby (ankle) and Christian Wilkins (foot) should set up the unit for a smooth day and give quarterback Mac Jones plenty of time to make his reads. — Walder

What’s at stake: This matchup can drastically improve or hurt both teams’ chances at the No.1 pick (independent of other results). The Raiders’ odds at the selection increase to 30% with a loss and decrease to 2% with a win, per ESPN Analytics. The Jaguars’ chances climb to 11% with a loss and fall to less than 1% with a win. Read more.

Injuries: Jaguars | Raiders

Fantasy X factor: Jaguars tight end Brenton Strange. Evan Engram (shoulder) is out for the season, which means Strange takes over as Jacksonville’s starting tight end. He looked solid earlier this year when filling in for Engram. He now faces a Raiders defense that gives up the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Raiders are 0-1 outright as favorites this season (lost 36-22 to the Panthers in Week 3). They are 3-1 ATS as favorites under coach Antonio Pierce. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Jaguars 17, Raiders 15
Moody’s pick: Jaguars 21, Raiders 13
Walder’s pick: Jaguars 26, Raiders 19
FPI prediction: LV, 56.5% (by an average of 2.4 points)

Matchup must-reads: Lawrence, Engram have shoulder surgery … Eerie mood looms over Raiders as Pierce’s job status is questioned

4:25 p.m. ET | CBS | ESPN BET: MIA -1 (44.5 O/U)

49ers storyline to watch: Dolphins receiver Tyreek Hill is averaging 12 yards per reception this season, which is on pace for the third-lowest total of his career. Improving on that mark could prove difficult against a Niners defense that has been stingy with big plays in the second part of the season. Since Week 8, San Francisco has given up only 10 pass plays of 20-plus yards (fewest in the NFL) and is giving up 9.3 yards per reception (second lowest) in that span. — Nick Wagoner

Dolphins storyline to watch: With Isaac Guerendo (hamstring) doubtful to play Sunday, the 49ers are presented with a difficult matchup against one of the NFL’s top run defenses. The Dolphins have allowed only one of their past eight opponents to crack 100 rushing yards (the Packers in Week 13). In fact, Miami has given up an NFL-best 83.3 rushing yards per game since losing to Green Bay. San Francisco might have to rely more on quarterback Brock Purdy, whose breakout game came against the Dolphins in 2022. — Marcel Louis-Jacques

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Stat to know: Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has the fourth-most passing touchdowns (13) and third-most passing yards (1,704) in the NFL since returning from a concussion in Week 10.

Bold prediction: 49ers tight end George Kittle will record 5-plus catches for 90-plus receiving yards. No team gives up a higher percentage of opponent targets to tight ends than Miami at 23%. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Dolphins will be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss after the Chargers’ Thursday night win. The 49ers will miss the postseason with a loss or be eliminated by seven other scenarios involving wins by other NFC teams. Read more.

Injuries: 49ers | Dolphins

Fantasy X factor: 49ers running back Patrick Taylor Jr. If Guerendo is out, the door opens for Taylor to lead the backfield. He scored nine fantasy points in Week 14 after Guerendo went down. The Dolphins have done well against quarterbacks, at least in fantasy, so this could be a game in which San Francisco leans on its ground attack. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: Five straight Dolphins home games have gone over the total. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: 49ers 22, Dolphins 20
Moody’s pick: 49ers 24, Dolphins 21
Walder’s pick: 49ers 30, Dolphins 17
FPI prediction: SF, 54.4% (by an average of 1.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Source: 49ers RB Guerendo likely out against Dolphins … Dolphins’ DuBose to return home after hospital stay … Greenlaw’s return highlighted why the 49ers need to keep him

8:20 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: TB -4.5 (48.5 O/U)

Buccaneers storyline to watch: Considering what the Bucs did as an offense in a 40-17 victory over the Chargers, the timing on this couldn’t be better. The Bucs’ run game has dramatically improved from last in the league last season to now fourth overall (144.4 yards per game). The Cowboys are giving up 136.1 rushing yards per game (fourth worst in the league) and have surrendered 43 total touchdowns as a defense (third most in the league). — Jenna Laine

Cowboys storyline to watch: If the Cowboys lose, it would be their seventh loss of the season at AT&T Stadium, their most since 2015. They also have a chance to match the franchise record for most home losses in a season (0-8 in 1989). All of this has come after they won 16 straight regular-season games at home from 2022 to 2023. To avoid a loss, the defense will have to slow down the No. 4 scoring offense in the league (28.8 points per game). — Todd Archer

Stat to know: A loss for the Cowboys would clinch their first losing season since coach Mike McCarthy went 6-10 in his first year in 2020. They haven’t had multiple losing seasons under a single head coach since going 5-11 in three straight seasons from 2000 to 2002 with Dave Campo.

Bold prediction: Buccaneers cornerback Jamel Dean will give up no more than 40 receiving yards as the nearest defender, even though he’ll presumably see at least some of wide receiver CeeDee Lamb. Since Week 10, Dean has given up just 0.7 yards per coverage snap, per NFL Next Gen Stats — far better than the 1.2 average for outside corners. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Buccaneers’ chances to win the NFC South increase to 93% with a win and fall to 68% with a loss. The Cowboys would be eliminated from playoff contention with a loss or a Washington win. Read more.

Injuries: Buccaneers | Cowboys

Fantasy X factor: Buccaneers wide receiver Jalen McMillan. He had 36.5 fantasy points combined in his first eight games and then 40.4 in the past two. Interestingly, he and Mike Evans ran the same number of routes in that span, with Evans barely leading in targets. The Cowboys’ defense gives up the sixth-most receiving yards per game to wide receivers. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Cowboys are 0-5 ATS as home underdogs this season. They are 1-6 outright and ATS overall at home. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Buccaneers 30, Cowboys 20
Moody’s pick: Buccaneers 35, Cowboys 21
Walder’s pick: Cowboys 20, Buccaneers 19
FPI prediction: TB, 70.0% (by an average of 7.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Rookies stepping up at right time for surging Buccaneers … What does the Cowboys’ 2025 salary cap really look like? … NFC South conundrum: Path to the playoffs, biggest hurdles

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET | ESPN | ESPN BET: GB -14 (42.5 O/U)

Saints storyline to watch: The Saints have played only 18 games at 32 degrees or below at kickoff. They have won the past three, including a game against the Browns in 2022 when it was 6 degrees. But New Orleans doesn’t have Taysom Hill (knee), the leading rusher from that last win, and might not have Alvin Kamara, who is dealing with a groin injury. The Saints also could start rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler since Derek Carr has been out because of a fractured hand. — Katherine Terrell

Packers storyline to watch: It’s a small sample size, but Packers quarterback Jordan Love has shown no issues when it comes to playing in cold-weather games. He’s 2-0 as Green Bay’s starter when the temperature is 32 degrees or lower, which helps as it could be snowing Monday. When it comes to late-season contests overall, coach Matt LaFleur also has the best December/January record (23-5) in the NFL since 2019. — Rob Demovsky

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Stat to know: The Packers are averaging 6.6 yards after catch per reception this season (third in the NFL). The Saints’ defense is giving up 6.2 yards after catch per reception this season (third highest in the NFL).

Bold prediction: Saints linebacker Demario Davis will lead the NFL in tackles in Week 16. The Saints are heavy underdogs to the Packers, which means Green Bay probably will be out in front and running the ball plenty. Davis has recorded a tackle on 21% of run plays he’s on the field for this season, which leads Saints linebackers. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Packers can secure their spot as the third NFC North team in the playoffs through multiple scenarios. The easiest path is by winning Sunday. Otherwise, Green Bay will need a Falcons loss to pair with either a loss by the Rams or the Seahawks. Read more.

Injuries: Saints | Packers

Fantasy X factor: Packers running back Josh Jacobs. Green Bay is a double-digit favorite, setting up Jacobs for a big workload. He has had 18-plus touches and 21-plus fantasy points in five straight games. The Saints’ defense gives up 23.7 fantasy points per game to running backs, making him a strong play this week. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Saints have been double-digit underdogs one time in the past 19 seasons (plus-11.5 at Buccaneers in 2021, when they won 9-0). They have not been at least 13-point underdogs since 2005. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Packers 30, Saints 17
Moody’s pick: Packers 28, Saints 16
Walder’s pick: Packers 27, Saints 10
FPI prediction: GB, 83.5% (by an average of 14.6 points)

Matchup must-reads: Edwards-Helaire joins Saints after being cut by Chiefs … Cooper, Doubs key to Packers’ win over Seattle … Saints bench Haener, go back to Rattler in loss

Games played on Saturday

Saturday, 1 p.m. ET | NBC/Peacock | ESPN BET: KC -3.5 (41.5 O/U)

Texans storyline to watch: Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes ranks 18th in completion percentage (45%) under pressure among starters, according to NFL Next Gen Stats. Meanwhile, the Texans’ defensive line is third in pressure rate (38.2%) and second in sacks (45). If the Texans can force Mahomes — who is dealing with a high ankle sprain — into uncomfortable spots, Houston can position itself for an upset. — DJ Bien-Aime

Chiefs storyline to watch: The Chiefs’ defense showed signs of life last week against the Browns with five sacks and an improved pressure rate (46%) when it didn’t blitz. The Texans have given up 46 sacks, fifth most in the league, so Kansas City has a reason to believe it can disrupt Houston quarterback C.J. Stroud. The Chiefs have had 11 of their 32 total sacks come in the past three weeks. — Adam Teicher

Stat to know: According to the Elias Sports Bureau, the 2024 Chiefs are the second team in NFL history to play games on six different days of the week, joining the 1927 New York Yankees.

Bold prediction: Mahomes will post a Total QBR of under 50. There’s a good chance his scrambling will be limited as he deals with a high ankle injury, so defending Mahomes becomes quite a bit easier. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Chiefs can lock up the No. 1 seed in the AFC with a win and a Buffalo loss, becoming the sixth team since 2002 to clinch the top spot with at least two games left in the regular season. Five of the previous six teams reached the Super Bowl, though none won. Read more.

Injuries: Texans | Chiefs

Fantasy X factor: Texans wide receiver Nico Collins. Yes, the Chiefs’ defense is tough, but it is still vulnerable. Just look at the big games it has given up to Jerry Jeudy, Courtland Sutton, Drake London, Ladd McConkey and Jakobi Meyers. Collins has averaged 19.3 fantasy points this season. He has had only one game with fewer than 10 points. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Texans are 12-2 against the spread (ATS) in the first half of games this season, which is the best in the NFL. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Texans 24, Chiefs 21
Moody’s pick: Chiefs 21, Texans 20
Walder’s pick: Texans 23, Chiefs 20
FPI prediction: KC, 57.4% (by an average of 2.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: How Texans OT Tunsil learned from draft-day nightmare … Chiefs to activate WR Brown vs. Texans barring any setbacks … Texans clinch AFC South for second straight year

Saturday, 4:30 p.m. ET | FOX | ESPN BET: BAL -6.5 (45.5 O/U)

Steelers storyline to watch: Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith compared the Steelers’ run game to an old truck earlier this week, saying that it might take some time to get it started, but it can put together some nice drives. In the two-game absence of wide receiver George Pickens, who could be out again this week, their offense became more one-dimensional and couldn’t run the ball effectively. To clinch the AFC North title against the league’s best rushing defense, the Steelers must establish the run early. — Brooke Pryor

Ravens storyline to watch: The Ravens can tie the Steelers atop the AFC North with a win, but they will need quarterback Lamar Jackson to break out of his slump against them. In losing four of his five starts against Pittsburgh, he recorded career lows in QBR (39) and completion rate (57%). The Steelers have pressured the two-time NFL MVP on 31% of his dropbacks and sacked him 22 times. — Jamison Hensley

Stat to know: For Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh, the run of nine straight meetings decided by seven points or fewer is the longest such streak by two head coaches in NFL history (regular season or playoffs).

Bold prediction: The Ravens will have a win probability of over 90% at halftime. Despite their records, FPI views the Ravens as substantially better, and I’m inclined to believe the model. — Walder

What’s at stake: The Steelers have already made the playoffs and can clinch the AFC North title with a win, which would be their first division title since 2020. The Ravens can secure a postseason spot with a win or if the Colts and Dolphins both lose. Read more.

Injuries: Steelers | Ravens

Fantasy X factor: Ravens wide receiver Zay Flowers. Since that monster 29.7-point performance against the Broncos in Week 9, Flowers has averaged just 10.3 fantasy points per game. He is still worth starting this week. The Steelers’ defense has struggled against outside receivers, as Philadelphia’s A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith had 25 and 28 points, respectively, last week. See Week 16 rankings. — Moody

Betting nugget: The Steelers are 5-1 outright and ATS as underdogs this season. Last week was the first time the Steelers lost as underdogs this season. Read more.

Kahler’s pick: Ravens 28, Steelers 25
Moody’s pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 21
Walder’s pick: Ravens 27, Steelers 13
FPI prediction: BAL, 66.8% (by an average of 6.5 points)

Matchup must-reads: Tomlin hopeful Watt will play against Ravens … QB Jackson’s five TDs vs. Giants sets another NFL mark