Greg Wyshynski
The NHL playoff races are anything from settled, from seeding within the divisions to the mad dash to grab the remaining wild-card spots.
But when the dust clears and the 16 postseason spots are secured, it’ll be time to ask the big question: Who will win the Stanley Cup?
As we wait for that to play out, we’ll ask a different question: Who can realistically win the Stanley Cup?
The NHL Bubble Watch is our monthly check-in on the Stanley Cup playoff races using playoff probabilities and points projections from Stathletes for all 32 teams. We also reveal which teams shouldn’t worry about any of this because they’re lottery-bound already.
As a bonus this month, we’re looking at the Stanley Cup championship probabilities from Stathletes, and which teams have the best percentage chances of raising the chalice should they get in.
But first, a look at the projected playoff bracket:
Projected playoff bracket
Note: Projected point totals via Stathletes.
Eastern Conference
M1 Washington Capitals (117.7) vs. WC2 Montreal Canadiens (87.9)
M2 Carolina Hurricanes (106.6) vs. M3 New Jersey Devils (92.5)
A1 Tampa Bay Lightning (102.4) vs. WC1 Ottawa Senators (95.1)
A2 Toronto Maple Leafs (102.0) vs. A3 Florida Panthers (101.9)
Western Conference
C1 Winnipeg Jets (114.1) vs. WC2 St. Louis Blues (93.5)
C2 Dallas Stars (107.7) vs. C3 Colorado Avalanche (103.9)
P1 Vegas Golden Knights (108.3) vs. WC1 Minnesota Wild (97.9)
P2 Los Angeles Kings (102.9) vs. P3 Edmonton Oilers (100.3)
ATLANTIC DIVISION
The locks
Record: 43-25-3, 89 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
The Panthers are finishing the regular season with a diminished roster due to player absences. Matthew Tkachuk is likely out until the playoffs with a lower-body injury. Dmitry Kulikov is week-to-week with an upper-body injury.
They’re hoping trade deadline coup Brad Marchand is back soon, but defenseman Aaron Ekblad won’t be back until the third game of the playoffs after violating the terms of the NHL/NHLPA Performance Enhancing Substances Program.
Stanley Cup win chances: 3.7%. Making the Stanley Cup Final is hard. Making it twice in a row is harder. Making it three straight seasons? Put it this way: Before the Lightning three-peated as a finalist from 2019-2021 — winning the Stanley Cup twice — the NHL hadn’t seen a team make three straight final rounds since the Oilers’ dynasty from 1983-85. The Panthers are trying to repeat the feat of their state rivals. Stathletes gives the Cats the 10th-best odds of getting there (8%) and winning it.
Record: 40-25-5, 85 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
When the Lightning were at the apex of their Stanley Cup contention, they’d be near the top of the league in goals per game and in the top 10 for team defense, thanks in no small part to having Andrei Vasilevskiy, considered at the time the best goalie in the world.
Well, what do we have here: The 2024-25 Lightning are one of the NHL’s top scoring teams thanks to another MVP-worthy campaign by Nikita Kucherov; and while Vasilevskiy has ceded the goalie throne to Connor Hellebuyck, he’s back to his dominant self after a few middling seasons. Stathletes give the Lightning the best percentage chance of winning the Atlantic.
Stanley Cup win chances: 13.0%. Tampa Bay has the third-best chance to win the Stanley Cup. While getting a higher seed and a presumably easier first-round matchup would help, the Bolts also boast a roster of proven playoff performers — including Jake Guentzel, one of the most accomplished postseason scorers (top 10 in goals) in the last nine postseasons.
Record: 42-25-3, 87 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
What should be clear about the Maple Leafs by now is that the regular season doesn’t matter, outside of securing playoff qualification. It’s all about what Toronto does — or annually, doesn’t — in the postseason. And yet the emotional swings for the Maple Leafs and their fans since the 4 Nations Face-Off have been palpable: five straight wins, followed by losing five of six games, followed by three quality victories, followed by a loss to moribund Nashville.
Everyone is looking for reasons to panic weeks before the playoffs. Probably not the best time for Scott Laughton to go pointless with a minus-5 since the trade deadline.
Stanley Cup win chances: 5.6%. The Maple Leafs’ pursuit of their first Stanley Cup championship since 1967 has some numbers in their favor, including an 11% chance of emerging from the Eastern Conference, the fourth-highest chances among those teams. Are Joseph Woll and Anthony Stolarz the goaltenders to backstop the Leafs to a championship round for the first time since the 2002 conference finals?
Record: 37-27-5, 79 points
Playoff chances: 98.2%
Welcome to the locks, Ottawa Senators. Their recent 8-2-1 streak was enough to propel them into the first wild-card spot and up their playoff probability over 98% — not bad for a team that had around a 43% chance of making the postseason cut in our last Bubble Watch.
What’s turned their season around? Well, giving Linus Ullmark the crease was a start, as he’s started 13 of the last 14 Senators games entering Tuesday night against Buffalo. The addition of Dylan Cozens at the trade deadline is getting great early returns, and their forward group overall has been contributing greatly to the cause.
Stanley Cup win chances: 2.2%. Not for nothing, but Ottawa’s last trip to the Eastern Conference finals was also their last appearance in the Stanley Cup Playoffs: 2016-17, losing to the Penguins in double overtime in Game 7. (What a sliding doors moment that would have been for the franchise.) As the first wild card, Ottawa will face the top seed in the Atlantic Division, and there’s certainly one matchup on the table they’d love to make happen, for the sake of Ontario.
Work to do
Record: 33-27-9, 75 points
Playoff chances: 48.8%
The Bubble Watch is nothing if not a snapshot of the NHL at a given moment.
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In January, the Habs had a 43.4% chance of making the playoffs. Then they lost eight of 10 games before the February Bubble Watch, knocking those chances down to under 9% and ending up in the lottery-bound tier.
But Montreal has jumped ahead of the mediocre pack on the bubble and into the last wild-card spot thanks to a stretch of 13 games in which they have just one regulation loss (8-1-3).
Stanley Cup win chances: 0.9%. The Canadiens aren’t going to be favored in a first-round series if they get into the postseason. Stathletes gives them just a 13% chance of advancing to the second round, which probably also explains their miniscule Stanley Cup odds.
But the Habs are a classic “team that you don’t want to face in the first round:” an unexpected playoff contender without much to lose, a team that plays with exuberance and confidence, and one that has some game-changing players that can turn a series. Ask a Capitals fan who remembers the 2010 postseason if they want to see the Canadiens in this scenario again…
Long shots at best
Record: 33-31-6, 72 points
Playoff chances: 3.0%
Last month, we asked if the Detroit playoff drought was finally over, as the Red Wings last made the playoffs in 2016. The answer appears to be “the drought shall continue,” as a stretch of nine losses in 11 games has taken Detroit’s point projection from around 90 points to 81.6 points on the season.
Coach Todd McLellan could only do so much to turn the season around in Detroit. Ultimately, this comes down to the players and the general manager who constructed the roster.
Stanley Cup win chances: 0.1%. If the Red Wings somehow sneak into the final wild-card spot with a torrid last few weeks — they have a 2.9% chance of taking WC2 specifically — the odds are heavily against them doing anything of consequence in the postseason.
Lottery-bound
Record: 30-33-9, 69 points
Playoff chances: 0.1%
The NHL trade deadline was GM Don Sweeney waving the white flag on this season, and his team has responded in kind. The Bruins have lost six of eight games since the deadline, although the malaise set in well before that: three wins in their last 17 games, tracking back to Feb. 5.
They weren’t lottery-bound in the last Bubble Watch. They certainly are now.
Record: 28-35-6, 62 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%
The Sabres’ postseason drought will reach 14 seasons, as a six-game losing streak after the 4 Nations Face-Off sent them plummeting down the Eastern Conference standings.
As usual, the only thing Sabres fans have to watch in May is Bill Daly turning over logo cards at the draft lottery.
METRO DIVISION
The locks
Record: 47-15-8, 102 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Spencer Carbery has been the head coach of the Capitals for two seasons. In his first campaign, he turned a Washington team many assumed would be in the lottery into a wild-card team, albeit one that made but a cameo appearance in the playoffs. In Year 2, his Capitals were the first team to receive an X next to their name in the standings, clinching a playoff spot before the calendar turned to April.
Alex Ovechkin’s goal record chase rightfully gets all the attention, but Washington has been a heck of a story in support of it.
Stanley Cup win chances: 9.8%. The Capitals have the fifth-best odds to win the Stanley Cup, better than those of the Jets, against whom they’ve been jockeying for the Presidents’ Trophy. Of course, perhaps they’re actually playing hot potato with it, considering the last 11 Presidents’ Trophy winners have all fallen short of the Stanley Cup Final, with as many losing in the first round as the conference final (two).
Record: 43-23-4, 90 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
All that drama surrounding Mikko Rantanen did little to knock the Hurricanes off course. Their eight-game winning streak ran through the trade deadline, having won nine of 10 overall.
Carolina is doing what it does: Possessing the puck, placing in the top 10 offensively and defensively, and killing penalties better than anyone in the NHL. The question is whether coach Rod Brind’Amour’s team can unlock whatever has held them back in the playoffs without the benefit of “rental with playoff gravitas” like Rantanen or Jake Guentzel.
Stanley Cup win chances: 14.0%. When the Hurricanes re-traded Rantanen at the deadline, many wondered what that meant for their Stanley Cup chances. Stathletes has them with the second-best odds of any NHL team to make the Stanley Cup Final (25.9%) and to win the whole thing. How they’ve played post-Rantanen has done little to dismiss that notion.
Record: 37-28-7, 81 points
Playoff chances: 94.6%
When the Devils lost Jack Hughes on March 5 to season-ending surgery, they were third in the Metro with 71 points but had gone just 9-11-3 since Jan. 1. They subsequently went 4-4-0 heading into Monday’s battle with the Canucks, hanging onto the No. 3 seed in the division by their fingertips.
Making matters worse: a long-term injury to top defenseman Dougie Hamilton and the porous play of starting goalie Jakob Markstrom.
Stanley Cup win chances: 1.0%. No Jack Hughes, no chance the Devils can overcome the beasts of the East or the best of the West to win the Stanley Cup this season. At least based on how they’ve played for most of their time without him. Their 3.33 goals-against average at 5-on-5 in that span was ahead of only the Sabres and Blackhawks league-wide.
Work to do
Record: 32-28-10, 74 points
Playoff chances: 28.0%
The Islanders are doing what they need to do in order to stay in this playoff race: Ride Ilya Sorokin, who has started 16 of their last 18 games; and don’t leave points in the table, having gone 3-0-2 in their last five games.
But as the Isles continue to push for the final wild-card spot, they do so with the seventh toughest schedule in the NHL down the stretch — including multiple games against Tampa Bay and Washington.
Stanley Cup win chances: 0.4%. The odds aren’t in the Islanders’ favor to do anything in the postseason, with just a 7.5% chance of making the second round.
Record: 34-31-6, 74 points
Playoff chances: 17.9%
The Rangers simply can’t get rolling long enough to bank points in the playoff race.
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They’ve had three two-game winning streaks since the 4 Nations Face-Off; twice, they erased those gains with multi-game losing streaks.
The Rangers looked to be turning things around with a win in Minnesota and a convincing victory against Columbus, a fellow playoff contender in the East. They followed that up with three straight regulation losses at home.
One step forward, three stumbles back, all seemingly all season long for this group.
Stanley Cup win chances: 0.3%. Could the Rangers find another level in the postseason? This was a conference finalist last season, with an all-world goaltender in Igor Shesterkin, and some elite offensive talent still on the roster. Plus, they have J.T. Miller’s “my problem is I care too much” intensity now, too. The odds say very much no — just a 1.5% chance of making the conference finals again — but it would be fun to find out.
Record: 32-29-9, 73 points
Playoff chances: 9.4%
There is no discernible Stadium Series curse, but if there was ever time to establish one it would be to explain how the Blue Jackets went from looking like a playoff team — and the best story in the NHL, to that end — to a group struggling to find its footing late in the season.
After their win over Detroit at The Horseshoe on March 1, the Blue Jackets lost eight of nine games, all but one of them in regulation. Their scoring dried up: 2.01 goals per game at 5-on-5 n that stretch, despite an expected goals of 3.13 per 60 minutes at 5-on-5. There’s still time for Columbus to finish its story, but time is running short.
Stanley Cup win chances: 0.1%. Like the rest of the Eastern Conference bubble, not much is expected from Columbus if they make the wild-card cut. But if the Blue Jackets overcome all they’ve dealt with, in a season dedicated to the memory of late star Johnny Gaudreau? If there was ever a team to expect a team to defy the odds …
Long shots at best
Record: 29-32-11, 69 points
Playoff chances: 0.1%
It speaks volumes about the current playoff race that the Penguins still have any mathematical chance of making the postseason cut, but here we are. Their recent play, going 5-1-1, gives them a different trajectory than a team like Boston, despite being tied in points and playoff probability.
Tristan Jarry returning from the AHL to lead the Penguins to a playoff spot would be one of the most inexplicable things of the NHL season, but Sidney Crosby would take it.
Stanley Cup win chances: 0.1%. Pittsburgh has had a “just get in” mentality for a while, hoping that their veterans could take on anyone in a seven-game series. As of now, Stathletes doesn’t expect any winning if they somehow got in: Pittsburgh has the same minuscule chance of winning a playoff round (0.1%) as they do winning the Stanley Cup.
Lottery-bound
Record: 28-35-9, 65 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%
The Flyers didn’t have much of a chance anyway with the worst goaltending in the NHL, sporting a .873 save percentage on the season. But Philly went from near the playoff bubble to absolutely cratering after the calendar flipped to March, with one win in 11 games (1-8-1).
It wasn’t just the goaltending that did them in: They Flyers were 27th in 5-on-5 offensive (1.96 goals per 60 minutes) during that span.
CENTRAL DIVISION
The locks
Record: 48-19-4, 100 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Sometimes the Jets lose games that leave one baffled: This is a likely conference champion that has dropped games to the Predators, Flyers and Sabres in the last month.
But whenever Winnipeg wobbles, the Jets find their footing again rather quickly as the league’s best defensive team and its third-best offensive team. Having a buster of slumps like Connor Hellebuyck in goal certainly helps, especially when he’s been in MVP form for most of the season.
Stanley Cup win chances: 6.5%. The Jets have the sixth-best Stanley Cup odds despite being one of the two best regular-season teams throughout the campaign. For Winnipeg, first thing’s first: This team has been bounced in five games in the first round in consecutive seasons. Stathletes gives the Jets a 60% chance of advancing to the second round this postseason.
Record: 45-21-4, 94 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Mikko Rantanen makes the Stanley Cup-contending Stars team even more formidable. It’s the same logic the Hurricanes had in acquiring him: Like Carolina, Dallas has hit a ceiling in their conference, falling one series victory short of the Stanley Cup Final.
Rantanen’s reputation as a playoff force is, theoretically, something that could push Dallas over the top to their first Cup Final since losing to Tampa Bay in 2020. With a little luck, and a lot of good health, it could happen.
Stanley Cup win chances: 3.0%. The Stars are not going to be lucky with their seeding, as they seem destined to face Rantanen’s old mates the Avalanche in the first round. They might also not be healthy: Coach Peter DeBoer said that star defenseman Miro Heiskanen might not be ready for the start of the playoffs, having been on the shelf since January. Dallas has the 11th-best odds to win the Cup per Stathletes. They have just a 37.1% of advancing past the first round. Not coincidentally, the Avalanche have a 64.7% chance of moving on to Round 2.
Record: 43-25-3, 89 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
The Avalanche turned a likely playoff berth into a near certainty since the last Bubble Watch, thanks in part to a post-4 Nations surge in which they went 10-1-1. They scored five or more goals in six of those games.
Nathan MacKinnon has played himself into a potential second straight Hart Trophy win, while GM Chris MacFarland’s trade deadline moves have appeared to make a great team even better — to say nothing of his work in fixing their goaltending earlier this season or getting Martin Necas for Rantanen, who has outscored Rantanen since that blockbuster.
Stanley Cup win chances: 12.0%. The Avalanche have the fourth-best odds to win the Stanley Cup this season, and the second-best in the Western Conference. If they can get past what’s going to be an opening-round war against the Stars — assuming the Wild or Blues don’t surge up to the top three in the Central — the sky’s the limit for Colorado. (And boy, do we want to see that Rantanen vs. Avalanche matchup in the West.)
Record: 40-26-5, 85 points
Playoff chances: 96.8%
Has any NHL coach been more overlooked than John Hynes of the Wild this season? Minnesota lost its MVP in Kirill Kaprizov back in January to a lower-body injury; he last played on Jan. 26. That’s after he was injured back in December, missing a month of games then as well. In total, their star has played 37 games this season.
Since he went out in January, the Wild are chugging along with an 11-8-0 record (0.575 points percentage) despite other injuries, including one to center Joel Eriksson Ek. They missed Jared Spurgeon in January for a bit, too. But Hynes has coached them to a wild-card spot they haven’t surrendered.
Stanley Cup win chances: 1.0%. All that said, the Wild have yet to show the makings of a Stanley Cup contender this season, even when Kaprizov was healthy. If they’re at full strength, they could certainly make life interesting for any number of contenders in the West. But the Wild have just a 7.8% chance of making the conference finals, let alone play for the Cup.
Work to do
Record: 37-28-7, 81 points
Playoff chances: 71.1%
Full marks to the Blues: In a league where so many teams are trying to open the door to a playoff spot only to fumble with the handle, St. Louis has basically kicked it down. The Blues had a 13.4% chance of making the playoffs in the last Bubble Watch.
Their 12-2-1 run since Feb. 23 gives them the best points percentage in that span (.833), right ahead of the Avalanche (.800). It’s the Blues’ wild card to lose at this point.
Stanley Cup win chances: 4.6%. The Blues have a nearly 34% chance of advancing past the first round if they make the cut, which might be what happens when your potential first-round opponent can’t seem to get out of the first round (Winnipeg). St. Louis has much longer odds in capturing the Cup. If only there were a recent example of a Blues team that had a dominant second half of the season, with a combination of solid offense and strong goaltending from Jordan Binnington, that shocked the NHL by winning the Cup …
Record: 32-28-11, 75 points
Playoff chances: 13.3%
This is the playoff race that the Arizona Coyotes should have had last season, before relocation talk permeated their dressing room and was the main cause of their spiraling losing streak. Instead, it’s Utah fans that get to watch a collection of young stars learning what playoff race intensity is all about.
They’re hanging tough in the Western Conference, getting healthy at the right time and watching goalie Karel Vejmelka giving it everything he’s got night after night (after night after night). Don’t count out the Hockey Club yet — and don’t sleep on the fact they close the season with a game against St. Louis.
Stanley Cup win chances: 0.7%. Look, it would be a blast to see playoff hockey in the NHL’s first season in Salt Lake City. But let’s give this team a nickname before seeing anything etched on the Cup, shall we?
Lottery-bound
Record: 26-36-8, 60 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%
The Predators are predicted to finish with 73 points at the end of this nightmarish season, after which they’ll count their lottery blessings and reassess how it all went so wrong after their free agent spending spree last offseason.
Record: 21-41-9, 51 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%
According to Stathletes’ points projections, it’ll be a thrilling race to the bottom for the Blackhawks (59 points) and the Sharks (58.7 points) to see which team ends up with the highest percentage of balls in the ol’ lottery machine.
PACIFIC DIVISION
The locks
Record: 42-20-8, 92 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
The Golden Knights have been atop the Pacific for most of the season, cruising along with a .657 points percentage despite several injury bumps along the way: Entering Monday, only 10 Vegas players had appeared in more than 60 games on the season. William Karlsson, Mark Stone and Shea Theodore — expected back soon — all missed time.
The hope is that Tomas Hertl, injured against the Lightning on Sunday, won’t miss too much of it. Vegas has powered through it all with a team that can beat you offensively or defensively, ranked in the top seven in both.
Stanley Cup win chances: 14.3%. At ESPN BET, seven teams have better odds than the Golden Knights to win the Stanley Cup. Stathletes evaluates the field differently: Vegas has the highest percentage probability of winning the Stanley Cup this season. The Knights also have the highest probability of making their conference finals (49.0%) than any team in the league.
Record: 39-21-9, 87 points
Playoff chances: 99.9%
Talk about under the radar: The Kings had the sixth-best points percentage in the NHL through 69 games (.630), ahead of teams like the Avalanche and Panthers. They’ve steadfastly been in the top three defensively this season, playing well in front of Darcy Kuemper’s resurgent season.
Los Angeles averages less than three goals per game (2.93) and only has three players with 20 or more goals. But as Carolina and Boston recently found out when the Kings hung seven goals on both of them, when Los Angeles gets its offense going it can really go.
Stanley Cup win chances: 4.6%. The Cup chances aside, the probability Kings fans are most interested in would be the 57.7% chance that Los Angeles will reach the second round. That would mean the Kings will have done something they’ve been unable to do for three straight seasons: Defeat the Oilers in the opening round. Home ice could be a factor here: The Kings are an astonishing 25-3-4 at home, including a franchise-record home point streak of 14 games.
Record: 41-24-5, 87 points
Playoff chances: 99.5%
The Oilers are ensconced in the top three of the Pacific Division, with a 96.7% chance of finishing either second or third. That’s important given the fact that both Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl are out of the lineup in the near term with injuries.
Edmonton has been an inconsistent group all season, especially defensively. But they’ve already shown how far a healthy and dominant McDavid and Draisaitl can carry them in the postseason.
Stanley Cup win chances: 1.9%. This was the most surprising number in the Bubble Watch. The Oilers came within one win of capturing the Stanley Cup last season. While there are some players missing from that team, the majority of this Edmonton group experienced that run. But given their play this season and the strength of the conference, Stathletes computes the Oilers’ probability to win the Stanley Cup is worse than 13 other teams.
Work to do
Record: 33-25-11, 77 points
Playoff chances: 10.6%
The Flames are 4-2-1 in their last seven games, including a sweep of the New York teams. The problem is that the team they’re chasing went 6-1 in that span. As much as the Blues are rolling right now for wild card No. 2, Calgary has a few games in hand and has played well enough to hang tight in this race.
As long as Dustin Wolf keeps coming up large in his outstanding rookie season, the Flames are going to be in this thing. Alas, they don’t have any games left against the Blues.
Stanley Cup win chances: 0.1%. The accomplishment for the Flames would be to get back into the playoffs in a season in which few expected they could make the cut. The experience for players like Wolf in a Stanley Cup postseason atmosphere would be a win in itself.
Record: 33-26-12, 78 points
Playoff chances: 8.9%
This Canucks season has had, in no particular order:
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A player vs. player feud that ended with J.T. Miller getting traded
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The baffling statistical regression of franchise player Elias Pettersson
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A major injury loss of starting goaltender Thatcher Demko
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A major injury loss of star defenseman Quinn Hughes, who was having an MVP season
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Another soap opera surrounding that defenseman’s availability as a late-tournament replacement in the 4 Nations Face-Off
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The trade deadline mystery of star winger Brock Boeser’s pending unrestricted free agency and lack of a contract extension
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And the ongoing speculation that head coach Rick Tocchet might leave after this season
That they have a percentage chance at the playoffs over zero at this point is nothing short of miraculous.
Stanley Cup win chances: 0.1%. While there would be no fitting way to cap a chaotic season with the first Stanley Cup win in franchise history, the odds are unfortunately against it.
Lottery-bound
Record: 30-32-8, 68 points
Playoff chances: 0.1%
The Ducks stoked some faint playoff hopes by winning six of seven games around the 4 Nations Face-Off, but haven’t been able to put together another streak to make things interesting. Anaheim is 28th in the NHL in goals per game.
Record: 30-36-5, 65 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%
The Kraken’s fourth season might be their most disappointing campaign: Regression under a new head coach and after some significant offseason signings, while finishing with a points percentage that isn’t good enough for playoff contention or bad enough for strong lottery odds. The epitome of “just there.”
Record: 19-42-9, 47 points
Playoff chances: 0.0%
As the Sharks and Blackhawks vie for the league’s worst points percentage, keep in mind that Chicago has the fifth toughest schedule for the rest of the season while San Jose has the eighth hardest.