Hockey Hall of Fame tiers: Which current NHL players will make it?

You could make the argument that Ovechkin belongs here with or without breaking Gretzky’s goals record. He’s second all time in goals during an era in which goal-scoring was significantly more difficult than when Gretzky set his mark, from the goaltenders to the quality of defense. It’s not just generational snobbery to say he’s the best goal-scorer in NHL history.

The Hockey Hall of Fame is a place that celebrates the story of the game and the people who authored it. To that end, Crosby and Ovechkin were the two most important players to the growth of the NHL since Gretzky. Their rivalry as diametrically opposed forces fueled interest in the NHL after a canceled season dramatically reduced it. They inspired peers, entertained the masses and defined the sport for over 15 years.

Hockey fans were blessed to experience it.

Immortal locks

Paul Pidutti of Adjusted Hockey uses his own methodology to determine worthiness of candidates. Using that process, he determined 41 players whose on-ice achievement places them in the “inner circle” of candidates, or “the greatest among the greatest.”

Along with Crosby and Ovechkin, two players from the list above have qualified for Pidutti’s elite grouping: Malkin and McDavid.

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Malkin is 18th all time in points per game (1.16). He has a Calder Trophy, a Hart Trophy, two scoring titles and a Conn Smythe on his mantel. He may not always make NHL top-100 lists, but that’s just part of the reason his eventual enshrinement will be all the sweeter, with Malkin finally getting the flowers he deserves.

At just 26 years old, McDavid is already a lock for the Hall of Fame. His first eight seasons in the league are on that Gretzky or Mario Lemieux level of sheer dominance: five point-scoring titles and a goal-scoring title, three MVP awards and four NHLPA player of the year nods. He doesn’t have a Stanley Cup and never had a chance to play for an Olympic medal, but he does have gold in the IIHF world championships and the under-20 and under-18 world championships.

I think Hedman and Karlsson defined the era in between the end of Nicklas Lidstrom’s reign and that wave of young elite defensemen who make up the ruling class today. Hedman’s Norris Trophy win and six straight seasons as a finalist make him a lock. Karlsson’s Norris win last season also cemented him as a Hall of Famer — everyone with at least three Norris trophies is in the Hall. He’s also seventh among defensemen in points per game (minimum 657 games, or Bobby Orr’s career).

Kane is 10th all time in points by a right wing. Stamkos has been, statistically, the second-best goal-scorer in the NHL behind Ovechkin since 2008. Kopitar is also an easy call: sixth among active players in points (1,155) and a multiple Selke Trophy winner during the Patrice Bergeron era.

Speaking of the Boston Bruins, Pidutti also thinks Marchand is a lock as one of the best left wings to play in this century. “He’s elite on production alone,” he told me. Add in the championship success and that Marchand charm that fulfills the “fame” requirement, and he’ll be in the Hall.

Fleury may not be considered in that category of elite netminders where you’d find, say, Patrick Roy — Pidutti ranks him 24th all time. But he’s going to pass Roy for second in career NHL wins over a career spanning 20 seasons. He’s a Vezina Trophy winner, a well-liked player and a Hall lock.

On the way

Makar is putting together a McDavid-esque run as a defenseman, winning the Norris and finishing as a finalist in three straight seasons. He also has some accomplishments McDavid doesn’t have: a Stanley Cup win and a Conn Smythe Trophy. For a defenseman with at least 250 NHL games played, he’s third all time in points per game (1.04), behind Orr and Paul Coffey.

Matthews is another one clearly on his way. For players who have at least 495 games played, the Maple Leafs star is third all time in goals per game (0.63), behind Mike Bossy and Lemieux. We were tempted to put both of these players in the lock category. Give them another couple of seasons.

One step behind Matthews are Draisaitl and Pastrnak. The Oilers star has the third-most goals since 2016-17, when he really found his stride. Ditto for Pasta, who had the fifth-most goals and the eighth-best PPG in that span.

And if we’re talking points per game, then we’re talking Kucherov, who is fifth among active players in that category; and MacKinnon, who is fourth since 2017-18, when he began his peak run. MacKinnon has a Cup. Kucherov has two Cups and one of the most preeminent Hart seasons (2018-19) in recent memory.

Kucherov’s teammate Vasilevskiy is moving up the wins chart, leading the league in that category in five of the past six seasons. He has a Vezina, a Conn Smythe and the reputation as one of the NHL’s top postseason goalies ever. Bobrovsky should be well into the top 20 all time in wins by season’s end. The Panthers goalie has two Vezina wins; since 1981, only one goalie with multiple Vezina wins isn’t in the Hall: former Bruins star Tim Thomas.

Team Canada darlings

Since 2010, the Canadian men’s national team has captured three significant championships, winning Olympic gold in Vancouver (2010) and Sochi (2014) and capturing the World Cup of Hockey in 2016, when that tournament was revived by the NHL and the NHLPA. A number of players who starred on those teams — but also had tremendous NHL careers — are going to start coming up for Hall of Fame induction soon.

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We can argue the overall impact of Tavares, especially after signing in Toronto, but he’s easily one of the top scorers of his generation who will end up with over 500 goals and 1,000 points.

Doughty was nominated for the Norris four times, winning it once. He was a foundational player on two Stanley Cup championship teams. His stamina is his virtue: Doughty leads all defensemen in average ice time (26:15) since the NHL started tracking that stat. Plus, Canadian media members have praised him to the moon and back.

Speaking of which: Carey Price. Pidutti has Price 27th among all goalies, but concedes he’ll likely be a Hall of Famer. “Statistically he’s actually only a little bit better than Ryan Miller, but I just think based on reputation that he’s gonna create support,” he said.

Price became just the seventh goalie ever to win the Hart Trophy in 2014-15, and Pidutti believes that dominant season is a “separator” between Price and other recent goaltenders with Hall aspirations.

Pietrangelo is top 10 in points among active defensemen, and was the backbone on two different Stanley Cup winners in St. Louis and Vegas.

Staal has 455 goals and 1,063 points in a solid 18-year career. Perry has 891 points (420 goals) in 1,270 games. He has a Hart Trophy and a goal-scoring crown. What’s a bit interesting about his candidacy is how Perry went from being a top-tier scorer to an essential role player on contending teams, all while maintaining his unique brand of whimsy.

Veteran maybes

Kessel might want to monitor Patrick Marleau’s candidacy to see if someone holding a considerable NHL games played record can break through into the Hall — although Marleau’s got better numbers than Phil The Thrill. That said, “Hockey Hall of Famer Phil Kessel” is such an indelible turn of phrase that we need to see it happen.

Pavelski has well over 1,000 points and is creeping in on 500 goals. He has never been top of mind for individual awards and is still chasing a Stanley Cup, but he’s well respected for sacrificing his body in front of the net for 18 years. Suter is like Pavelski — long-serving American player, international hockey experience, good numbers, no accolades — but without the inherent charm.

Backstrom’s Hall of Fame credentials have been a topic of conversation with him stepping away from the Capitals due to injury. His numbers are terrific: 1,033 points in 1,105 games, much of that as a setup man for Ovechkin. He never got a sniff of the Selke despite being one of the better two-way centers in the NHL. Backstrom could easily fall into that “underappreciated in his time” Hall category of players who get the call after several years of eligibility.

O’Reilly does have a Selke but probably not the overall career to warrant enshrinement — at least not yet. Pidutti sees Giroux as a “Hall of Very Good” player. Carter is there, too, despite 431 goals, seventh among active players.

Burns is 14th all time in points by a defenseman with 844 in 1,348 games, with the caveat that some of those points were collected when he was a young forward. Nonetheless, he has a Norris, three nominations in total and a chance at the top 10 in all-time points for a defenseman and is eccentric enough to fulfill the fame quotient.

“I actually hope he gets in because when I looked at him closely, he was way better than everyone wants to remember,” Pidutti said.

Josi has his Norris and is a two-time finalist. He’s got a few years left in him to bolster his point total (611). Letang never won the Norris, but he has the numbers (698 points) and two Cup wins to his credit.

Panarin has the most upward mobility here. He’s just outside the top five in points per game among active players, so The Breadman could improve on his 685 points in 604 games. But he just turned 33, making him basically ancient compared to this next tier.

Prime-time maybes

All of these players are under 30, save for Scheifele, who will need a lot more to build a sturdy Hall case (he’s 35th among active players in points). The same could be said for Laine (200 goals) and Thompson, the former having started his career with great numbers and the latter just coming into his own recently.

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Eichel has 461 points in 491 games, and he also now has our attention as an elite, Stanley Cup-winning two-way center. Tkachuk didn’t win the Cup for the Panthers, but the 25-year-old also cemented his NHL stardom with that epic playoff run.

Tkachuk is eighth over the past five seasons in points. Marner (seventh) and Rantanen (ninth) are trending up, although Mitch could use a Selke or a Cup to really level up. (So this being the Leafs we’re talking about here … a Selke, I guess.)

Barkov is building a really impressive case as arguably the third-best defensive center of the Bergeron era, with one Selke win already. He’s likely ahead of Aho here as “Finnish two-way centers with Hall of Fame potential.”

Two players we’re excited to watch continue on their path to immortality: Pettersson, who has pushed above a point-per-game pace in his career; and Fox, who has a Norris win and is fifth in points among defensemen since debuting in 2019-20.

What would Kaprizov’s case look like if he didn’t spend those first few years in Russia? An excellent thought experiment.

Goalie mysteries

The Hockey Hall of Fame has an unpredictable approach to goaltenders. It moves quickly on some legendary netminders like Martin Brodeur, Henrik Lundqvist and Roberto Luongo, who were all inducted in their first years of eligibility. But class of 2023 inductees Mike Vernon and Tom Barrasso had to wait 18 years. Rogie Vachon, inducted in 2016? He last played in the 1981-82 season. Again, you figure it out.

Quick ranks 62nd based on Pidutti’s model, but he was fourth in wins and led the league in shutouts from 2010 to ’18, winning two Stanley Cups. I think he’s going to be close, but his lack of a Vezina hurts.

None of the other three goalies here have a Cup, but Hellebuyck and Shesterkin have Vezina wins. Obviously, we’ll see where these three end up statistically in the next several seasons, but they could have a case — provided the selection committee ever decides to take them up.

The under-24 tier

Finally, the youngin’s.

From this group, Quinn Hughes, Heiskanen and Dahlin seem poised to get some Norris love soon. Jack Hughes was on the Hart Trophy short list before his injury and has found his groove as an NHL star. Then there’s Bedard, who was billed as a generational talent when the Chicago Blackhawks drafted him first overall last summer. He’s done nothing in his first dozen NHL games to discourage that narrative.

There are many more names we could throw in here, from Buffalo defenseman Owen Power to any of the Anaheim Ducks’ collection of young stars. The future is very bright in the NHL. Maybe even Hall of Fame-worthy.