Neil Paine
A week and a half ago, hockey fans were wondering whether the 2024 Stanley Cup Final would end in a sweep for the first time since 1998. Now, we’re all wondering whether it will end with the ultimate comeback.
That’s how quickly the fortunes of the Edmonton Oilers rose — and those of the Florida Panthers fell — as Florida’s 3-0 series lead has evaporated heading into Monday’s Game 7 (8 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN+).
Connor McDavid has taken over the Final, with eight points (three goals, five assists) in Edmonton’s three consecutive wins. He has had plenty of help, from sources both expected (Zach Hyman and Evan Bouchard have four points apiece in that span) and unexpected (so does Warren Foegele). Meanwhile, the Panthers’ key producers have been almost invisible — they have only two of the top 17 scorers in the series during Games 4-6 — and so has netminder Sergei Bobrovsky, whose .793 save percentage over the past three games is dwarfed by Oiler counterpart Stuart Skinner’s .942 mark.
All of this sets up a winner-takes-all finale in South Florida, a test of home-ice advantage and full-season résumé against momentum and peaking superstars. The Panthers remain slim favorites to win the Cup, despite their collapse.
But if the Oilers win, it would represent the first 3-0 comeback in the Stanley Cup Final since 1942, and the sixth in the history of the North American major men’s pro sports leagues (on top of winning Canada its first Cup since 1993.) And there’s a strong case to be made that Edmonton’s comeback would be the most impressive of the bunch.
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To judge the magnitude of each 3-0 or 3-1 comeback in the history of the NHL, NBA or MLB, we can begin by looking at the eventual winner’s series odds at the time of their greatest deficit according to the Elo Ratings, a measure of team strength that updates after every game (and can be used to create win probabilities — while accounting for factors such as home ice — going forward). By that measure, Edmonton had a 3.3% chance of coming back and beating Florida after losing Game 3 on June 13.
That’s pretty low — but surprisingly, it’s actually not as low as the Panthers’ 2.2% chance to come back from down 3-1 and beat the mighty Boston Bruins in last season’s first round of the playoffs. However, it’s tough to argue that a Round 1 comeback is more historically significant than one in the Final, so we will be ranking the men’s major pro sport comebacks by how much championship probability they added between the team’s largest deficit and the moment they finished off the series (or might finish it, in the case of the Oilers).
Since Edmonton was, by definition, down to 3.3% title odds after falling behind 3-0, a series win would mean the Oilers added a whopping 96.7 percentage points of championship probability during their comeback.
How does that compare with history’s other great series comebacks? Let’s find out.
Greatest deficit: 3-0 vs. Florida Panthers in the Cup Final
Series win probability at low point: 3.3%
Championship probability added by comeback: +96.7%
This Oilers-Panthers series was set up as a referendum on the value of star power (McDavid) versus the superior top-to-bottom team (Florida) … and it seemed like the latter was going to beat the former in decisive fashion. But McDavid is no ordinary star. And because of that, the Oilers are a dangerous team when they get rolling on offense — especially on the power play — while also getting solid play from Skinner in net.
Because they were pre-series underdogs and were outscored 11-4 in Games 1-3, Edmonton had the second-lowest odds of any NHL team to eventually pull off the 3-0 comeback (only the 1975 New York Islanders against the Pittsburgh Penguins were lower, at 2.8%), but those odds didn’t reflect how quickly McDavid could help turn his team’s fortunes around.
3:18
Oilers sizzle to send Stanley Cup Final to Game 7
The Edmonton Oilers beat the Florida Panthers 5-1 to set up a thrilling finale to the 2024 Stanley Cup Final.
Greatest deficit: 3-1 vs. Golden State Warriors in NBA Finals
Series win probability at low point: 3.6%
Championship probability added by comeback: +96.4%
Yes, the second-greatest comeback on our list was “only” of the 3-1 variety, not the 3-0. But LeBron James and the Cavs’ reversal of fortune in the 2016 Finals is legendary for a reason. At its low point, Cleveland needed to win three consecutive games (including twice on the road) against a Stephen Curry-led Warriors squad that was the defending champion and had just set the NBA record for single-season wins (73).
Draymond Green’s ill-timed suspension for Game 5 opened up the door ever so slightly for the Cavs, but James still needed to average 36.3 points, 11.7 rebounds and 9.7 assists per game down the stretch — and Kyrie Irving needed to hit one of the clutchest shots — for Cleveland to cement an unlikely championship.
Greatest deficit: 3-0 vs. Detroit Red Wings in Cup Final
Series win probability at low point: 7.4%
Championship probability added by comeback: +92.6%
Pending what happens with Edmonton on Monday, this is still the only 3-0 comeback in the history of the Stanley Cup Final — and it made for a wild series. Just to stave off a sweep, Toronto needed to survive a back-and-forth Game 4 that saw Red Wings coach Jack Adams (he of the eponymous award for the league’s top coach) trade punches with referee Mel Harwood after the final buzzer.
But the Leafs, who had 15 more points than Detroit during the regular season, were the better team; they won Games 5-7 by a combined score of 15-4 to capture the league’s first seven-game Stanley Cup Final.
Greatest deficit: 3-1 vs. St. Louis Cardinals in World Series
Series win probability at low point: 9.0%
Championship probability added by comeback: +91.0%
There has never been a 3-0 comeback in the history of the World Series — the 2004 Boston Red Sox (more on them later) made their grand comeback in the ALCS — so the 1985 Royals’ Show-Me State turnaround against the Cardinals leads our baseball ranking.
Winners of 101 games during the regular season, St. Louis was heavily favored going into the series and especially after going up 3-1. But thanks to the hitting of George Brett, Lonnie Smith, Steve Balboni and less-heralded names such as Dane Iorg and Darryl Motley, the clutch pitching of Dan Quisenberry and Bret Saberhagen and, of course, a blown call by umpire Don Denkinger in Game 6, K.C. stormed back to win the title.
As a fun fact, this was actually the Royals’ second 3-1 comeback of the 1985 postseason: Against the Toronto Blue Jays in the ALCS, they had a 7.4% series win probability, though that comeback added fewer points of championship odds (+46.3%) because it came earlier in the playoffs.
Greatest deficit: 3-1 vs. Milwaukee Braves in World Series
Series win probability at low point: 9.0%
Championship probability added by comeback: +91.0%
Perhaps because of those ’04 Red Sox, we tend to think of the Yankees as being Goliath on the receiving end of David’s improbable upset. But in 1958, the Bronx Bombers were the unlikely winners when the defending champion Braves put them in a 3-1 hole — outscoring them 20-12 along the way — for their sixth head-to-head win in eight games going back to the 1957 Fall Classic.
From there, New York had to go through three combined starts from Warren Spahn and Lew Burdette (albeit with both on short rest), who finished Nos. 2 and 3 in the Cy Young voting. But the Yankees’ hitters, led by Gil McDougald’s 1.429 OPS, averaged nearly six runs per game anyway while series MVP Bob Turley won Games 5 and 7 while recording the save in Game 6 as well.
Greatest deficit: 3-1 vs. Baltimore Orioles in World Series
Series win probability at low point: 10.6%
Championship probability added by comeback: +89.4%
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Few teams are more synonymous with their moment in time than league co-MVP Willie Stargell and the “We Are Family” Pirates in 1979. But Pittsburgh was never assured of its iconic status. The team trailed the NL East by seven games as late as July 8, with just an 8.9% chance to win the division.
After going on a 57-26 tear to make the playoffs anyway, then sweeping the remains of the Big Red Machine, the Pirates found themselves down 3-1 against a Baltimore team that won 102 games behind Ken Singleton, Eddie Murray and the game’s top pitching staff.
By Elo ratings, Baltimore is the best team to ever blow a 3-1 lead in the World Series. But that didn’t matter to the Pirates, as they blitzed the Orioles by a combined score of 15-2 over the rest of the series, with Stargell’s sixth-inning HR in Game 7 putting the Bucs up for good.
Greatest deficit: 3-1 vs. St. Louis Cardinals in World Series
Series win probability at low point: 12.1%
Championship probability added by comeback: +87.9%
The 1968 Tigers are sometimes lost in the annals of baseball history, given that the team hadn’t made the postseason in the previous 23 years (and it wouldn’t return to the World Series again for another 16 years).
But for that ’68 season, Detroit was an excellent club — one that nonetheless found itself in a Fall Classic bind after losing Game 4 by a 10-1 margin to Bob Gibson and the Cardinals. Relying on Norm Cash, Willie Horton and the legend, Al Kaline, at the plate, with steady pitching from Mickey Lolich and Denny McLain (the 31-game-winner who overcame a couple of uncharacteristically shaky starts earlier in the series), the Tigers climbed out of the hole and forced Game 7.
Gibson, the final boss of all fearsome pitchers, was waiting. But Detroit got 3 runs off him in the seventh inning and survived St. Louis’ ninth-inning comeback attempt as Lolich beat Gibson in dueling complete games.
Greatest deficit: 3-1 vs. Cleveland Indians in World Series
Series win probability at low point: 12.7%
Championship probability added by comeback: +87.3%
In the Year of the Improbable Victory, the Cubs’ curse-breaking comeback wasn’t quite as unlikely as the Cavs’ win against the Warriors (or for that matter, the New England Patriots’ 0.3% probability win against the Atlanta Falcons in the Super Bowl — technically part of the 2016 season).
The fact that Chicago, despite being a juggernaut all season, had to overcome a 3-1 deficit against a tough (and long-suffering) Cleveland team to prevent its championship drought from reaching 109 years remains impressive.
Never a team to make life easy on its fans, the Cubs turned a 6-3 eighth-inning cushion in Game 7 into a tie ballgame by giving up a home run to Rajai Davis — and then had to wait out an agonizing 17-minute rain delay — before retaking the lead in the 10th and barely hanging on to finally (finally!) win their title.
Greatest deficit: 3-1 vs. Washington Senators in World Series
Series win probability at low point: 13.2%
Championship probability added by comeback: +86.8%
Baseball has given us more 3-1 comebacks in the championship round than either the NBA or NHL, so it makes sense that MLB would figure so prominently into the title-odds-adjusted version of our ranking.
In 1925, the Pirates were in a similar spot as the ’68 Tigers were — they’d just lost to an all-time pitcher (in this case, Walter “Big Train” Johnson) in Game 4 and needed to battle back just to force a Game 7 against that same ace.
But Pittsburgh had multiple Hall of Famers of its own, and it overcame an immediate 4-0 deficit in Game 7 to win with the help of two poorly timed errors by AL MVP Roger Peckinpaugh at shortstop, denying Johnson a second consecutive World Series ring.
Greatest deficit: 3-1 vs. Philadelphia 76ers in division finals
Series win probability at low point: 1.9%
Championship probability added by comeback: +49.0%
A Boston comeback checks in as the greatest among our non-championship round group … but it’s probably not the one you were expecting! The ’68 Celtics rank higher than the ’04 Sox because a 3-1 deficit for an NBA team — specifically, one that won 54 regular-season games, against a 62-win defending champion coming off a record-breaking title run — while needing to win twice on the road and once at home, is actually tougher to overcome oddswise than a 3-0 deficit for an MLB team against a relatively evenly matched opponent.
In this case, Boston needed to reduce MVP Wilt Chamberlain’s efficiency (his true shooting dipped from 53.2% in Games 1-4 to 43.0% in Games 5-7) and limit his teammates’ secondary scoring (Chet Walker and Wali Jones went from averaging 40.3 combined points per game to 24.3) to clamp down on the Sixers’ offense and return to the NBA Finals en route to a 10th title in 12 seasons.
Greatest deficit: 3-0 vs. New York Yankees in ALCS
Series win probability at low point: 6.4%
Championship probability added by comeback: +46.8%
This is probably the canonical 3-0 comeback in all of sports history, even if it lags somewhat behind in championship probability added. What it lacks there, it makes up for in narrative quality — coming against the archrival Yankees, the year after New York denied Boston a trip to its first World Series since 1986, extending the Sox’s championship drought to 86 years.
With a superior regular season run differential, Boston seemed poised to change things in the ’04 ALCS … only to be humiliated early on, falling behind 3-0 by a 32-16 scoring margin.
What followed, however, were the most dramatic four days in October the game has seen, with the Red Sox turning the tables in as cathartic a way as anyone could imagine.
Greatest deficit: 3-1 vs. Philadelphia Flyers in conference finals
Series win probability at low point: 7.7%
Championship probability added by comeback: +46.2%
In a rematch of the 1995 East finals, won by New Jersey in six games en route to the Cup, the Flyers were hoping to prove they were more ready to battle the Devils this time despite missing captain Eric Lindros, who was out with a concussion. That seemed to be the case when Philadelphia won three straight in Games 2-4, including consecutive victories at the Meadowlands, to take a 3-1 series lead.
New Jersey turned the tables on the road at Philadelphia in Game 5, with Martin Brodeur stopping 20 of 21 shots — he’d posted a save percentage of just .847 over the previous three losses — but with Lindros set to return for Game 6, the Devils remained on the ropes.
And yet, while Lindros did score, the famously stingy Devils defense made that Philly’s only goal, setting up a Game 7 from which the lasting memory is Scott Stevens knocking Lindros out with a brutal hit less than 10 minutes in. That play set the tone for a 2-1 New Jersey win that set the Devils back on course to win their second Cup in six seasons.